2012年全球房地产行业展望报告_英文版_巴克莱.pdf

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1、ECONOMICS RESEARCH 27 June 2012 PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 46 GLOBAL THEMES: HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK What goes up. Julian Callow +44 (0)20 7773 1369 Chris Crowe +44 (0)20 7773 4816 Michael Gapen +1 212 526 8536 Antonio Garcia Pascual +44 (0)20 3

2、134 6225 Yiping Huang +852 2903 3291 Kyohei Morita +81 3 4530 1688 Gavin Stacey +61 2 9334 6128 James Barber, CFA +81 3 4530 1542 Yuichiro Nagai +81 3 4530 1064 Robert Tayon +1 212 412 2512 Global housing markets show diverse trends at present. The German and Austrian markets show a rising p

3、rice trend. Many other markets appear stagnant in price terms (US, UK, Australia, France, Japan) or are weakening (China, Italy, Netherlands). Some (Ireland and Spain) are in a sharp correction which appears some way from being over. Looking ahead, the divergences are likely to continue. Housing is

4、affordable in the US and Germany, the consequence of low price-to-income ratios and low interest rates. In the rest of the euro area, however, prices are likely to decrease, dragged down by an ongoing correction in southern Europe and Ireland. Barclays | Global Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June

5、 2012 2 CONTENTS OVERVIEW 3 US HOUSING MARKETS 7 EURO AREA HOUSING MARKET 19 UK HOUSING MARKET 31 JAPAN HOUSING MARKET 38 CHINA: REAL ESTATE 41 AUSTRALIAN HOUSING MARKET 44 Barclays | Global Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June 2012 3 OVERVIEW A mixed outlook 1 The outlook for global house prices

6、varies significantly by country. In this publication we focus on housing market trends, both for activity and prices, across much of the global economy. What emerges is a decidedly mixed, though generally weak, outlook. It becomes increasingly clear, as we move towards the sixth year of the financia

7、l crisis, that for countries which experienced a combination of sharp increases in real house prices during the period 1995-2008, followed by a substantial excess of supply, house prices have been under significant downward pressure and in some cases (notably Ireland and Spain) have not yet reached

8、a final equilibrium. That said, for markets which have adjusted more sharply in activity and price terms (such as the US), there are indications of some recovery. Germany and Japan stand out for having minimal growth in nominal house prices over the past 15 years, although there are some indications

9、 that the former market is starting to recover, helped by a combination of particularly low mortgage rates and yields for other forms of investment, low unemployment and stronger real income growth. The UK market continues to look expensive in relation to income levels, but is also supported by a sh

10、ortage of housing stock and as with most countries low debt servicing costs. Figure 1 shows the dramatic rise and fall in house prices in markets which experienced particular overheating namely, the US, Spain and Ireland. These three markets share common characteristics, in terms of having had a sha

11、rp run-up of prices in relation to incomes, in part the result of declines in borrowing costs, which then resulted in a major excess of housing supply. Figure 1: House price trends (Q1 97 = 100) (a) Nominal house prices (b) Real house prices* 70 120 170 220 270 320 370 420 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

12、 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ireland UK France Spain China* Italy Germany US Japan* fo r e c a s t 70 120 170 220 270 320 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ireland UK France Spain China* Italy Germany US Japan Note: *Uses NBS series till 2010 then Barclays aggregate of 70 cities, deflat

13、ed by GDP deflator;*Japan: Tokyo-Osaka weighted mean; *Deflated using household consumption deflator. Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research (for forecasts) Julian Callow +44 (0)20 7773 1369 Some markets have shown signs of recovery 1 Aside from this overview, the remaining material in this pub

14、lication was published initially in the AAA Handbook (June 2012) Barclays | Global Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June 2012 4 Figure 2: Residential investment (% nominal GDP) - excess in US and Ireland have unwound, but not in Spain (a) International comparisons (b) Euro area comparisons 0 2 4 6

15、8 10 12 14 2 4 6 8 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 E12 UK Japan fo r e ca s t US 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 France Spain Italy Ireland Portugal Germany fo r ec a s t Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research (for forecasts) Figure 3: Housing investment contribution to annual expansion in real GDP (pp) (a) US 2) maj

16、or fiscal consolidation; 3) rapidly rising unemployment; and 4) ongoing declines in real estate prices (such as in Spain, Ireland and Portugal). Meanwhile, there are other countries in the euro area, namely France, Germany and Italy, which continue to have relatively low ratios of household debt to

17、income (at end 2011: 65% for Italy, 83% for France, 87% for Germany, compared with 105% for Spain, 116% for UK, 114% for US, 126% for Portugal, 218% for Ireland, and 242% for the Netherlands). Household de-leveraging has significantly further to go in countries experiencing negative macro trends, su

18、ch as Spain, Ireland and Portugal Figure 4: Divergent levels and trends in gross household interest liabilities as a share of household disposable income (%) 10 50 90 130 170 210 250 81 87 93 99 05 11 30 60 90 120 150 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 US UK Japan Euro area Germany France gross int

19、erest rate liabilities, % household gross disposable income 290 NL Ireland Portugal Spain Italy gross interest rate liabilities, % household gross disposable income Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research Barclays | Global Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June 2012 6 Figure 5: House prices in re

20、lation to per capital disposable income - history signals long-term convergence to trend 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 UK Franc 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 e US euro area 2 7 12 17 22 27 1975 1985 1995 2005 Japan (Tokyo and Osaka conurbations) Spain Portugal Ireland Italy NL Ger. Note: Da

21、ta show average prices for existing homes. Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research Figure 6: Interest servicing costs are relatively low (a) Gross interest payments (% household disposable inc.) (b) Affordability measures* 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 60 80 100 120 140 160 1800 2 4 6 8 10 12

22、 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Japan UK France Spain Italy Germany US 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ireland UK Spain (BdE net series) France Italy Germany US (NAR series, RHS) Note: *Shows a simple indication of affordability for a new buyer, based on the ca

23、lculation: typical dwelling price times typical mortgage rate, times 0.5, divided by per capita household disposable income, except for US (National Association of Realtors series) and Spain (Bank of Spain (BdE). Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research Figure 5 shows a simple measure of valuation

24、 comparing a typical dwelling price with per capita personal disposable income. Such a comparison shows a significant mean-reverting tendency (or convergence back to trend) for real estate prices over time for most countries (the UK appears to be an exception here). It provides some important eviden

25、ce that the US market is at a very low value in relation to income levels (also this is true for Germany and Portugal). Figure 6(a) considers interest rates. In general debt servicing costs for households have been declining, as a consequence of a rising dependence upon variable rate interest rates.

26、 If we compute a simple measure of affordability, based on typical mortgage rates and dwelling prices in relation to incomes, in general these are comparatively low for most countries, particularly again for the US and Germany. Overall, this provides some reason for thinking that there is upside pot

27、ential for prices in the US and Germany. However, such comparisons do not consider credit supply and demand nor excess capacity. For reasons related to these factors, and discussed in the euro area section, we consider that prices in Ireland and Spain have substantial further downside from here. Bar

28、clays | Global Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June 2012 7 US HOUSING MARKETS You have to learn to walk before you can run This report was previously published in the AAA Handbook, 15 June 2012. We look for the recovery in US housing markets to broaden as an improving economy and better affordabil

29、ity offset the large overhang of shadow inventory. We expect single- family starts to trend higher and for a modest increase in national home price indices. Michael Gapen +1 212 526 8536 Robert Tayon +1 212 412 2512 The US housing market is in recovery mode, and we expect the recovery to broaden.

30、We look for recent strength in multi-family starts to be complemented with an upward trend in single-family starts as inventories of single-family homes become leaner. Whereas supply of single-family homes was 8.3 months in Q4 10, it is only 5.7 months in Q4 11, or about one month above pre-crisis l

31、evels. Under our baseline macroeconomic outlook of continued modest growth, housing demand should strengthen gradually. Consequently, single-family starts are poised to move gradually higher, if only to keep inventories at all-time lows. We forecast national home price indices that include distresse

32、d and non-distressed prices to rise about 3.0% in both 2012 and 2013 as downward pressure from foreclosed properties entering the market is more than offset by improving demand from employment and income growth. That said, several factors will likely constrain the pace of the recovery, including the

33、 amount of shadow inventory and inability of many households to access low mortgage rates. This suggests to us that after bottoming and taking the first steps toward recovery last year, housing still has to learn to walk before it can run. US housing on the mend: Recent trends and expectations After

34、 falling precipitously during 2006-08, US housing demand was boosted artificially in 2009-10 by government policies, including the homebuyer tax credit and Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage-backed securities. The removal of the first-time homebuyer tax credit caused a severe retrenchment in the

35、sector in Q3 10 since this policy was most effective in bringing forward near-term demand. US housing is in recovery mode Figure 1: Multi-family starts have rebounded from a strong rental market Figure 2: while new single-family home inventory continues to move lower 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,40

36、0 1,600 1,800 2,000 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Single family starts (lhs) Multi-family starts (rhs) thous, 3mma, saar thous, 3mma, saar New home sales (lhs) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 3 5 7 9 11 13months supply (rhs) 000s mon

37、ths Source: Census Bureau, NAR, Haver Analytics Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics Barclays | Global Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June 2012 8 After the retrenchment in late 2010, the US housing sector began to turn the proverbial corner. In “Every journey begins with a single step”, The AAA

38、 Handbook: A new dimension, June 2011, we judged the US housing market to have bottomed and looked for a gradual upward trend in starts and sales. In addition, while we expected shadow inventory to continue to pressure prices lower in 2011, we felt a gradually improving US economy would support hous

39、ing demand and lead national home price indices to finish 2012 about 1.5% higher (Q4/Q4) in 2012 (see 2012 US Home Prices: Modest recovery with regional divergence, October 19, 2011). This outlook underpinned Barclays view that housing would no longer be a drag on the US economy and the sector would

40、 contribute modestly to growth in the coming quarters. A strong rental market has pushed multi-family starts higher On balance, our outlook on housing has proven correct. Housing starts of 654,000 (saar) in March 2012 stand 10% above year-ago levels and are in line with our forecast of 664,000 (saar

41、) that we made a year earlier in this publication. The CoreLogic National House Price index, which includes distressed and non-distressed properties, fell 3.9% y/y in December 2011, but was down only 1.9% y/y in February, suggesting that our estimate of home prices posting a modest decline in 2011 w

42、as not far off. Finally, residential construction has made a positive contribution to GDP growth for four consecutive quarters, a trend we expect to continue. The low base that housing is starting from means the sector is not likely to contribute significantly to growth, as it has in previous recove

43、ry phases, but the fact that housing has stopped falling is a point worth making. Starts have moved higher and housing has added to GDP growth in four consecutive quarters Data so far in 2012 continue to indicate to us that the US housing market remains on the mend. At 209,000 (3mma, saar) units, mu

44、lti-family starts have doubled over the past two years, and permit activity has continued to trend higher, suggesting that the upward trend in multi-family starts remains in place (Figure 1). An uptick in single-family starts would be yet another sign that housing has turned the corner. Two things n

45、eed to happen for us to turn more constructive (pardon the pun) on single-family start activity: first, an ongoing, albeit moderate, recovery in the US has to translate into firmer housing demand; and second, new home inventory levels have to get even leaner. A strong rental market has pushed multi-

46、family starts higher Figure 3: Homebuilder sentiment points towards better start activity ahead Figure 4: Pending home sales lead existing home sales by a few months 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 01 03 05 07 09 11 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 NAHB expected single- family sales (-6m

47、) (lhs) Single family housing starts (rhs) Index Thous, saar 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 01 03 05 07 09 11 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 Pending home sales (lhs) Existing home sales (rhs) index mn. saar Source: Census Bureau, NAHB, Barclays Research Source: NAR, Barclays Research Barclays | G

48、lobal Themes: Housing Market Outlook 27 June 2012 9 Can single-family starts follow the lead? Trends suggest we are not far from meeting these two conditions. Net revisions in March added 56,000 to new single-family home sales, which is a significant bump when viewed against the current base rate of sales 328,000 (saar). This pushed new home inventories to an all-time low of 144,000 units, or 5.3 months of sales in March (Figure 2), whereas supply of inventory averaged about 4.5 months prior to the crisis. Homebuilders hav