2017年汇丰银行-港股-房地产行业-香港房地产：9月主要销售保持强劲-20171013-HSBC-Hong Kong Real EstateSeptember primary sales remained robust-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、 Disclosures our preferred plays are NWD, SHKP and CKA, all Buys Strong sales likely to persist in October, driven by the mass market segment. The sales performance of SHKPs Wings At Sea has been strong since its launch in late September. The company accumulatively sold c75% (1,040 units) in 10 days

2、 and achieved sales of HKD6bn. The whole project is expected by management to be sold out in October, similar to another mass market project, Chinachems Parc City in Tsuen Wan, which was launched recently. Developers accelerated the pace of new launches, with total saleable units doubling to 2.1k un

3、its in September, vs 1.1k units in August. Overall, the take-up rate in September was a reasonable 65%. We expect sales momentum to persist in October and start to slow down from November given more launches on luxury units with high unit sales price. Key new launches include SHKs Victoria Harbour (

4、355 units) and CKAs My Central (185 units). Primary sales remain resilient; secondary sales showing signs of stabilizing. Primary sales grew by 62% m-o-m to HKD23.3bn in September, topping HKD10bn for the eighth consecutive month. Simultaneously, the secondary market showed signs of stabilizing, wit

5、h sales rebounding 16% m-o-m to HKD22bn, vs a 4% m-o-m decline in August. In volume terms, secondary sales actually picked up 18% m-o-m to 3.0k units, the second month of volume improvement. Property prices have risen 10.6% YTD, despite a mild price adjustment of 0.4% in September. Primary sales loo

6、k set to hit a record high in 2017e, exceeding HKD200bn. We expect 2017e primary sales to grow 21% y-o-y to HKD226bn, up from HKD187bn last year. Primary sales surged 52% y-o-y to HKD186bn in the first nine months of 2017, equal to 82% of our full-year projection. We expect major developers to expan

7、d their market share in the residential sector over the next year or two, translating to higher earnings. In our view, SHKP will be the key beneficiary given its market leadership and fast asset turnover. We expect its FY18e contracted sales to grow 12% y-o-y, reaching a record high of HK50bn. We ma

8、intain our positive stance on HK property companies. We expect the sectors long-awaited rerating to happen in the next 12 months, led by developers. The sector is trading at an attractive 41% NAV discount, 1.0 SD below its historical mean. Our preferred plays are NWD (17 HK, CMP HKD11.92, Buy, TP HK

9、D14.20), CKA (1113 HK, CMP HKD64.30, Buy, TP HKD79.00) and SHKP (16 HK, CMP HKD129.50, Buy, TP HKD156.40), based on valuation. 13 October 2017 Raymond Liu*, CFA Associate Director The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6743 Michelle Kwok* Head of Real Estate Research, AS

10、P The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6918 Ganesh Siva* Associate Bangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Hong Kong Real Estate EQUITIES REAL ESTATE Hong Kong September pri

11、mary sales remained robust EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 13 October 2017 2 Primary market Developer accelerated the pace of new launches Developers accelerated the pace of new launches, with total saleable units doubling to 2.1k units in September, vs 1.1k units in August. Overall, the take-up rate in Septem

12、ber was at a reasonable level of 65%. There were six launches in September, including two major launches during the month Wings at Sea in Lohas Park and Oasis Kai Tak in Kai Tak and both saw reasonable sales performance, with around 40-74% of the units at both projects sold in less than a month. Fig

13、 1. Sales performance of new launches during AugustSeptember 2017 Project District Developer(s) No. of units ASP Versus Take up rate % of HKD k/sqft secondary in 1 month units sold Sep-17 Wings at Sea (晉海 ) NT Sun Hung Kai 1040 14.3 +13% 74% 74% OASIS KAI TAK KL Wheelock Finance 648 21.4 +15% 40% 40

14、% Coo Residence NT CSI Prop 204 15.1 +22% 95% 95% The Amused (喜遇 ) KL Emperor Intl/URA 136 17.1 +13% 96% 96% The Parkville (天生樓 ) NT New World Dev 100 14.2 +1% 37% 37% Mount Vienna NT Hanison Const 12 33.4 +32% 17% 17% Aug-17 Parc City (全城滙 ) NT Chinachem 953 14.5 -11% 100% 100% Edition 178 (豐寓 ) NT

15、 Private investor 136 15.9 +19% 94% 96% Source: Centaline, SRPE Market share of the primary market expanded. The primary market expanded to 47% of total residential sales in 9M17, compared with 44% in 2016. We expect the market share of the primary market to gradually rise in the next one to two yea

16、rs as developers accelerate asset turnover and some demand is diverted from the secondary market. Fig 2. Primary sales grew to 47% of total residential sales in first 9 months of 2017 Source: Centaline, HSBC; 2017 sales data refers to the first nine months of 2017. 31% 47% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50

17、% - 40 8 0 12 0 1 6 0 20 0 2 4 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 T hous ands Pr im ar y r es ide nt ia l s ale s H KD b n, LH S) % o f m a rk e t s h a re (R H S ) 3 EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 13 October 2017 Primary residential sales in September were up 93% m-o-m by vol

18、ume and 62% by value. Primary residential transactions rose by 22% y-o-y by volume and 52% y-o-y by value in 9M17. In September alone, primary sales volume rose by 93% m-o-m to 2,368 units from 1,228 units in August, while primary transaction value rose by 62% m-o-m to HKD23.3bn from HKD14.4bn in Au

19、gust 2017. This is encouraging and helps reaffirm our views that primary sales will likely hit record highs, exceeding HKD200bn in 2017e, and will continue to grow. Fig 3. Monthly primary residential units sold (000s units) Fig 4. Monthly primary residential sales (HKDm) Source: Midland Realty Sourc

20、e: Midland Realty CKA leading the pack. In 9M17, CKA recorded total contracted sales of HKD33.9bn from three projects, representing 60% of the total sales value of the five best-selling projects. CKAs Ocean Supreme in Tsuen Wan fetched over HKD13.3bn in sales, the highest recorded by a project YTD.

21、CKAs Harbour Glory in North Point recorded the highest average ASP of HKD32.9k psf. Other projects that have seen a strong sales performance include SHKPs Cullinan West IIA (HKD13.3bn), CKAs Ocean Pride (HKD10.4bn), and CKAs Harbour Glory (HKD10.3bn). Fig 5. Best-selling residential projects in sale

22、s value for the first 9 months of 2017 (HKDbn) Source: Centaline, HSBC 0. 0 0. 5 1. 0 1. 5 2. 0 2. 5 3. 0 3. 5 J an-14 S ep -14 M ay -15 J an -1 6 Sep- 16 M ay -17 T hous ands U n it s 1 5 a v g 1 6 a v g - 5, 00 0 1 0 , 0 0 0 15 , 0 00 20 , 0 00 2 5 , 0 0 0 3 0 , 0 0 0 35 , 0 00 4 0 , 0 0 0 J a n -

23、1 4 Se p- 14 M a y -1 5 J an-16 S e p -1 6 M ay -17 H K D m 15 av g 16 av g 1 3 . 3 1 3 . 3 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 3 9 . 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 O c e a n S u p r e m e C u ll in a n W e s t I I A O c e a n P r id e H a r b o u r G lo r y T h e P a v il ia B a y C K A S H K C K A C K A N W

24、D / V a n k e S a le s v a lu e ( H K D b n , L H S ) A S P ( H K D 0 0 0 s / s q f t , R H S ) EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 13 October 2017 4 Home price saw a mild correction in September House price growth paused in September and corrected mildly by 0.4%, compared with 0.7% growth in August. This ended th

25、e positive property price growth trend of eight consecutive months. Prices have rebounded 25.5% since their trough in March 2016, up 10.6% YTD. As a reminder, our home price forecast is 10% growth in 2017e, which translates into a flattish growth in 4Q17e. We expect property prices to moderate by 5%

26、 in 2018e. Property prices in Hong Kong have risen 181% since the start of quantitative easing in the US in November 2008. Fig 6. Price changes do not necessarily lead to volume changes due to demand-side measures Source: Centaline, Land Registry Small- and medium-sized units saw a mild correction i

27、n price. Property price growth in small- and medium-sized units has seen a mild decline of 0.3% since end-August, leading to an overall property price decline of 0.4%. YTD, small- and medium-sized units have seen stronger gains in prices (up 11.2%), than large-sized units (up 7.4%). Prices have rise

28、n most in Kowloon. Price trends have been mixed across the citys various districts since end-August. Prices rose in Kowloon (up 1.6% m-o-m), New Territories East (up 0.3% m-o-m) and Hong Kong Island (up 0.1% m-o-m), but fell in New Territories West (down 2.5% m-o-m). By district, home prices have se

29、en the most significant increases YTD in Kowloon (up 12.5%), followed by New Territories East (up 11.7%), New Territories West (up 11.3%), and Hong Kong Island (up 9.4%). 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 - 2, 00 0 4, 00 0 6, 00 0 8, 00 0 1 0 , 0 0 0 12 , 0 00 1 4 , 0 0 0 J an -0 6 J an-07 J an -0 8 J an -0

30、9 J an -1 0 J an -1 1 J an-12 J an -1 3 J an -1 4 J an -1 5 J an-16 J an -1 7 S ec on da r y re s id en t ia l t ra ns ac t io n v ol um e (L H S ) C en t al in e pr op er t y pr ic e (R H S ) I nt ro du c t io n of s ev er al de m a nd s id e m e a s u re s s t a rt in g f ro m N o v 2 0 1 0 P ric

31、e up , v ol um e up D iv er gen c e bet w een pr ic e and v olum e t rend + 11 . 2% + 2 . 6 % + 6. 5% + 1 0 . 6 % Property price have rebounded by +25.5% since the trough in March 2016. YTD 2017: +10.6% 2016: +6.5% 2015: +2.6% 2014: +11.2% Fig 7. Property price change by apartment size (% y-o-y) Fig

32、 8. Property price change by district (% y-o-y) Source: Centaline, HSBC Source: Centaline, HSBC 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2014 2015 2016 Y T D 17 Ov erall S m a ll/ m e d -s iz e d u n it s L a rg e -s iz e d u n it s 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2014 2015 2016 YT D 17 H K Is la n d Ko w lo o

33、 n N T Ea s t N T W es t 5 EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 13 October 2017 Primary new launches have commanded a premium since 4Q16 Developers are gradually re-gaining pricing power in the primary residential market. In 3Q17, the pricing differential (premium) between the primary and secondary residential mark

34、ets widened to 8.9%, compared with 4.5% in 4Q16, and an average of around 3% during 2014-16. We anticipate the pricing premium to stay at 10-20%, similar to the premium commanded by six recent launches in September (Figure 4). Average transacted value in the primary market 35% higher than in the sec

35、ondary market In September 2017, the primary unit price was recorded at HKD9.9m/unit, 35% higher than the secondary unit price of HKD7.3m/unit. YTD transacted value per unit in the primary market is at HKD13.0m/unit, which is 75% higher than the average transacted value in the secondary market at HK

36、D7.4m/unit. Fig 9. Developers have again commanded pricing power since 4Q16 Source: Centaline, Midland Realty Fig 10. Average primary unit transacted at HKD9.9m in September 2017 Fig 11. YTD transacted value per unit in the primary market is 75% higher than that of secondary units Source: Midland Re

37、alty Source: Midland Realty 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 -1 0% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 5 Q 1 0 5 Q 4 0 6 Q3 07Q 2 0 8 Q 1 0 8 Q 4 0 9 Q 3 10Q 2 1 1 Q 1 1 1 Q 4 1 2 Q 3 1 3 Q2 14Q 1 1 4 Q 4 1 5 Q 3 1 6 Q2 17Q 1 P ric e di f f er en t ia l (% , LH S ) C en t al in e pr op er t y

38、 pr ic e in de x (R H S ) 4 8 12 16 20 24 J an- 14 Se p -1 4 M ay -15 J a n -1 6 Se p- 16 M a y -1 7 P rim ar y Sec ondar y Se p te m b e r 2 0 1 7 Pr im a ry : H KD 9 . 9 m /u n it Se c on da ry : H KD 7. 3m /un it 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Prim ary Se c ond ar y Ye a r

39、 to Se p te m b e r Pr im a ry : H KD 1 3 . 0 m /u n it Se c on da ry : H KD 7. 4m /un it EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 13 October 2017 6 Key launches in October could include CKAs My Central project Upcoming launches in October 2017 could include several medium-scale projects like CKA/URAs My Central (185 u

40、nits) in Central, HLDs Novum East (400 units) in Quarry Bay, SHKPs Victoria Harbour (355 units) in North Point, St. Barths (353 units) in Ma On Shan, and Wang Ons The Met. Acappella (薈蕎 , 336 units) in Sha Tin. Other upcoming launches include MCC Real Estates LAQUATIQUE (198 units) in Tsuen Wan, HLD

41、/NWDs JV Park Reach (尚悅 方 , 63 units) in Yuen Long, and HKRI/Nan Fungs La Cresta in Sha Tin (61 units). Fig 12. Residential projects that have received presales approval in the past 2 months (AugustSeptember 2017) No. of Estimated Developer(s) Project Project (Chi) District Area units completion Sep

42、tember 2017 Wing Tai Le Cap 澐瀚 N.T. Sha Tin 69 Mar/18 CKA/URA My Central HK Sheung Wan 185 Mar/19 Fame Top Investment Limited 80 Maidstone Road 翰畋 KL Homantin 92 Mar/19 August 2017 Chinachem Parc City 全 城滙 N.T. Tsuen Wan 953 Mar/19 New World Development The Parkville 天生樓 N.T. Tuen Mun 100 Jul/18 Sun

43、 Hung Kai /MTR Corp Phase IVB of LOHAS Park Wings At Sea 晉海 N.T. Tseung Kwan O 1132 Dec/19 CSI Properties COO Residence 城 點 N.T. Tuen Mun 204 Sep/19 Wheelock Finance Limited Oasis Kai Tak KL Kai Tak 648 May/19 Source: Lands Department, HSBC Fig 13. Residential projects pending presales approval (as

44、at September 2017) No. of Estimated Developer(s) Project Project (Chi) District Area units completion HKR (480 HK) Discovery Bay Area N1d N.T. Discovery Bay 196 Dec/17 Nuo Feng Limited 3 Clear Water Bay 清水灣 3號 N.T. Sai Kung 8 Dec/17 CK Asset No. 21 Borrett Road (Phase I) HK Mid-levels 115 Mar/18 Win

45、g Tai La Vetta 澐灃 N.T. Sha Tin 158 Apr/18 Sino United Development Royal Gem 璽 雙子府邸 N.T. Yuen Long 8 Jun/18 Chun Wo T Plus 菁雋 N.T. Tuen Mun 356 Sep/18 MCC Ltd (1618 HK) LAquatique 逸璟龍灣 N.T. Tsuen Wan 198 Dec/18 New World Tong Yan San Tsuen Rd N.T. Yuen Long 123 Jan/19 Far East/URA 229 Hai Tan St KL S

46、ham Shui Po 87 Mar/19 Wang On Properties (1243 HK) The Met. Acappella 薈蕎 N.T. Sha Tin 336 Apr/19 Henderson Land/New World Dev Park Reach 尚悅 方 N.T. Yuen Long 63 Apr/19 Sun Hung Kai Cullinan West (Phase 3) 匯璽 KL Nam Cheong 1,188 Mar/19 Billion Development T.P.T.L. No. 213 N.T. Tai Po 667 Jun/19 Palibu

47、rg/Century City 23 Lai Ping Rd N.T. Sha Tin 160 Jun/19 Kerry Lung Cheung Road project KL Beacon Hill 45 Jun/19 Wing Tai TMTL 435 RP N.T. Tuen Mun 178 Sep/19 K Wah Pak Shek Kok project N.T. Tai Po 1,073 Feb/20 MTR Lohas Park Phase 5 N.T. Tseung Kwan O 1,600 Mar/20 Nan Feng/Sino Ocean Land Lohas Park

48、Phase 6 N.T. Tseung Kwan O 2,392 Jun/20 Sun Hung Kai No. 8 King Sau Lane (Phase 1) N.T. Tuen Mun 522 Jul/20 Hong Kong Housing Society 48 Chui Ling Road 翠嶺峰 N.T. Tseung Kwan O 330 Mar/21 Hong Kong Housing Society 3 Ming Kum Road 翠鳴臺 N.T. Tuen Mun 290 Mar/22 No. of units 10,093 No. of projects 22 Sour

49、ce: Lands Department, HSBC 7 EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 13 October 2017 Secondary market transaction volume improved for the second consecutive month Secondary residential sales in September up 18% m-o-m in volume and 16% in value. In 9M17, secondary residential transactions recorded 21% y-o-y growth in volume terms and 39% y-o-y growth in value terms. Secondary transaction value increased 16% m-o-m to HKD22.0bn in September from HKD18.9bn i