2017年汇丰银行-港股-房地产行业-2017年施政报告：聚焦房屋所有权-20171012-HSBC-HongKongRealEstate2017policyaddress,Focusonhomeownership-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、 Disclosures Starter Homes scheme in a format of public private partnership We reiterate our positive views on the HK property sector; our favoured plays are Buy rated CKP, NWD, and SHKP The first Policy Address after the first 100 days in office. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, delive

2、red her maiden Policy Address, which sets the tone for upcoming housing policy in the next few years. She stated that “housing is not a simple commodity” and “the government will focus on home ownership to enable our people to live happily in Hong Kong and call it their home”. In particular, she hig

3、hlighted that the core housing issue in Hong Kong is related to insufficient land and supply, which cannot be solved by other means. The share prices of developers reacted negatively after the speech as there was no mention of potential farmland conversion, one of the viable sources of land supply,

4、in our view. Home ownership, supply, and housing ladder are key themes. We believe that future policy direction will be on an enhancement in home ownership, an increase in housing supply, and a re-building of the housing ladder for citizens. The governments focus is likely towards supply-side (incre

5、asing supply), rather than demand-side (curbing demand) austerity measures, in our view. While we do not expect the withdrawal of any policies currently in place in the near term, we see a lower probability of implementing new measures that make it more difficult for citizens to own a house. “Starte

6、r Homes scheme” in a format of public-private partnership a potential way of converting farmland to residential use. The government unveiled more details on its “Starter Home scheme”. Starter homes will be a new type of government subsidized flats for sale with several restrictions. One thing to not

7、e is that the land supply for “Starter Homes” is likely to come from sites already owned by private developers or to be bought from the government. The government will incorporate provisions into the land lease that require developers to sell a proportion of units at a target price to buyers meeting

8、 the eligibility criteria set by the government. We expect to see some developers adopting this approach when they convert their farmland into residential use in the next few years. We maintain our positive stance on HK property companies. We expect the sectors long-awaited rerating will happen in t

9、he next 12 months, led by developers. The sector is trading at an attractive 41% NAV discount, 1.0 SD below its historical mean. Our preferred developer plays are NWD (17 HK, TP HKD14.20, Buy), CKP (1113 HK, TP HKD79.00, Buy) and SHKP (16 HK, TP HKD156.40, Buy), given we believe they are trading at

10、attractive levels. 12 October 2017 Raymond Liu*, CFA Associate Director The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6743 Michelle Kwok* Head of Real Estate Research, ASP The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6918 Ganesh Siva* Associate Bangalore

11、* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Hong Kong Real Estate EQUITIES REAL ESTATE Hong Kong 2017 policy address: Focus on home ownership EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 12 October 2017 2 Setting the tones for upcoming housin

12、g policy supply focus Chief Executive Carrie Lam delivered her maiden speech in Policy Address on 11 October. She sets the tune for the housing policy with four themes. We view the stance of the housing policy as being to improve home ownership, increase housing supply, and re-build the housing ladd

13、er for the citizens. These four themes are: Housing is not a simple commodity. The community has a rightful expectation towards the Government to provide adequate housing. This is also fundamental to social harmony and stability. Therefore, while maintaining respect of a free market economy, the Gov

14、ernment has an indispensable role to play in this area. Focus on home ownership The government will focus on home ownership to enable HK citizens to live happily in Hong Kong and call it their home. They will strive to build a housing ladder to rekindle the hopes of families in different income brac

15、kets to become homeowners; Focus on supply The government will focus on supply based on the Long Term Housing Strategy, and will step up effort to increase the supply of housing units. Optimising the existing housing resources While there is insufficient land at the current stage and new supply is n

16、ot yet available, the government will strive to optimise existing housing resources to meet the housing needs of families that have long been on the waiting list for public rental housing (PRH) and to help residents in poor living conditions Fig 1. Summary of housing policies from the policy address

17、 Long term Housing Strategy - To implement the Long Term Housing Strategy, including annually updating the long-term housing demand projection and deriving a rolling 10-year housing supply target accordingly Increasing Supply of Subsidised Housing - To optimise the development potential of each publ

18、ic housing site by suitably relaxing the maximum domestic plot ratio and other development restrictions - To take forward housing construction programmes to achieve the public housing supply target under the Long Term Housing Strategy. For subsidised sale flats, the Hong Kong Housing Authority (HKHA

19、) put up about 2,100 new Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) flats for pre- sale in early 2017. It is anticipated that the HKHA can put up another 4,400 HOS flats for pre-sale in the first quarter of 2018. These flats are scheduled for completion between 2018 and 2020. - To work with the Hong Kong Housing S

20、ociety on the provision of about 600 new subsidised sale flats in Tseung Kwan O and Tuen Mun, which are scheduled for pre-sale in the fourth quarter of 2017 and completion in 2020 - To ensure the effective and rational use of PRH resources by enhancing enforcement actions and publicity against tenan

21、cy abuse - HKHA to conduct a review of the effectiveness of the Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Pilot Scheme - To explore the possibility of allowing owners of subsidised sale flats with premiums not yet paid to let their flats in order to help families with housing needs Starter Homes - To reb

22、uild the housing ladder to provide families in different income brackets with the opportunity to become home owners Private Residential Property Market - To implement appropriate demand-side management measures, including the Special Stamp Duty, Buyers Stamp Duty, and New Residential Stamp Duty to s

23、tabilise the residential property market and accord priority to the housing needs of Hong Kong permanent residents in the midst of the tight supply situation Improving Quality of Living in Public Rental Housing - The HKHA to review the effectiveness of the three-year programme started in 2016 to inc

24、rease the provision of recreational and associated facilities for the elderly in about 100 PRH estates with a higher proportion of elderly residents and consider extending the programme to other estates in due course - To implement sustainable public housing developments by designing for green and h

25、ealthy living - To implement various environmental initiatives in PRH estates, and enhance awareness of waste reduction among PRH residents to achieve the target of municipal solid waste (MSW) reduction - To continue with the rectification works to replace water pipes in the 11 affected PRH developm

26、ents with excess lead in drinking water in order to resolve the problem completely as soon as possible. Source: HKSAR Government 3 EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 12 October 2017 Re-building the property ladder The Chief Executive provided detailed information in how she is going to rebuild the property ladder

27、 of Hong Kong housing market. The rungs on the property ladder begin with Public Rental Housing (PRH), followed by the Green Form Subsidized Home Ownership Scheme (GSH), and Home Ownership Scheme (HOS). The new layer between HOS and private residential unit is “Starter Homes Scheme”, which target mi

28、ddle income class families in Hong Kong, and was proposed by the Chief Executive in her election manifesto. It targets re-igniting the hopes of families with a higher incomes to own a home in the face of hiking private property prices. “Starter Homes Scheme” targeting middle income class families Th

29、e government provided more information on the “Starter Homes Scheme”. One thing to note is that the source of land supply will likely be from sites already owned by private developers or to be bought from the Government. It could be an effective means of providing housing units in a shorter period o

30、f time, in our view. Full details of the scheme will be finalised for announcement in mid-2018 Key messages are: Land supply for “Starter Homes” will only come from sites already owned by private developers or to be bought from the Government; An incorporation of provisions into the land lease to re

31、quire developers to pursue mixed development, which specifies the number of “Starter Homes” in addition to private housing units, and restricts sales to specific groups of buyers determined by the government Eligibility of buyers includes local citizens who have never owned any apartments in HK Uppe

32、r income limit for the new scheme will not exceed HKD34,000 a month for single people and HKD68,000 for households with two or more members. Pilot scheme will be launched in a land sales of residential sites at Anderson Road, Kowloon, providing about 1,000 units, by the end of 2018 EQUITIES REAL EST

33、ATE 12 October 2017 4 Fig 2. Summary of developing land resources from the policy address Seeking Consensus - To establish a cross-sector Task Force to engage the community in discussion of different land supply options Updating Development strategy - To examine the strategic planning blueprint for

34、overall spatial planning and for land and infrastructure development beyond 2030 - To explore the scope of further developing a new town of a similar scale as Fanling/Sheung Shui in the New Territories North - Formulation of suitable conceptual schemes for potential Underground Space Development sit

35、es, including Kowloon Park, Victoria Park, and Southorn Playground is in progress - The launch of stage 2 Public Engagement to gauge public views on the relevant conceptual schemes is expected in 2018 Short term measures - For scrutinising development projects, a steering group to explore ways of co

36、nsolidation and rationalisation the standards and definitions adopted by the relevant departments under the Development Bureau - To facilitate the implementation of a “single site, multiple use” model in multi-storey development on government land to make optimal use of the limited land resources -

37、To implement a Pilot Scheme for Arbitration on Land Premium to facilitate agreement between the Government and private land owners - To rezone more than 210 suitable sites with development potential for which the community has more pressing needs - To increase the development density of individual r

38、esidential sites Medium and Long term Measures - To formulate a policy framework to tackle brownfield sites in a holistic manner, with the objectives of optimising land utilisation, rationalising land uses, and supporting the development of industries, and conduct survey on the feasibility of accomm

39、odating brownfield operations in multi-storey buildings within 2018 - To implement development plans for Kwu Tung North, Fanling North New Development Areas, Tung Chung New Town, Hung Shui Kiu New Development Area, and Yuen Long South - To explore residential, commercial and other suitable land uses

40、 in Tseung Kwan O Area 137 - To complete site investigation, detailed impact assessments, and detailed design for the relocation of Sha Tin Sewage Treatment Works to caverns - To commence feasibility studies on relocating the service reservoirs at Tsuen Wan and Yau Tong to caverns - To implement the

41、 recommendations of the study on the long-term strategy of cavern development - To convert suitable government sites and offices in the Central Business Districts into commercial use to provide the market with more prime office and commercial space to support economic activities - The proposed devel

42、opment of public housing at six government sites, including the five sites in Pok Fu Lam South (commencing 2019) and the redevelopment of Wah Fu Estate (completion in 2025), is expected to provide about 11,900 additional public housing units. - To carry out a strategic study to explore the prelimina

43、ry feasibility of reclamation at the southern part of the Central Waters Developing and conserving Lantau - To establish a Sustainable Lantau Office to progressively take forward various studies, development projects, and conservation work - The Environment and Conservation Fund has earmarked fundin

44、g and will invite applications for undertaking environmental education and community action projects on nature conservation in South Lantau - To take forward near-shore reclamation projects, including progressive conduct of district consultation and planning and engineering studies for Ma Liu Shui a

45、nd Lung Kwu Tan reclamation; and planning and engineering study for Sunny Bay reclamation; and completion of technical study for Siu Ho Wan reclamation on Lantau Island - To support the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) in its development of the Airport North Commercial District (SKYCITY) - To take

46、 forward the development project at Siu Ho Wan Depot Site and continue to actively explore in collaboration with the MTR Corporation Limited (MTRCL) the development potential of other stations and railway-related sites along existing and future rail lines Energising Kowloon East - To focus on enhanc

47、ing connectivity, improving the environment, and promoting vibrancy and diversified development in San Po Kong - To review the land uses of a site at Lai Yip Street near the Kwun Tong harbour front - To review the future use of the land released upon the relocation (expected in 2020) of the Ngau Tau

48、 Kok Divisional Police Station - Increasing the residential development intensity of the Kai Tak Development Area by amending the Kai Tak Outline Zoning Plan with completion expected in 2018 - Transformation of Kowloon East into an attractive core business district creating potential for further sup

49、ply of c4.6 m sqm in addition to the existing 2.4 m sqm of commercial/office floor area - About 550,000 sqm space expected in the coming five years from private redevelopments and wholesale conversion projects - Two action areas (Kowloon Bay and Kwun Tong ) provide about 560 000 square meters of commercial/office floor area - To implement the concept of “walkability” in Kowloon East with a view to improving the pedestrian environment and traffic