2017年德银-港股-房地产行业-楼市降温-20171019-Deutsche_Bank-Hong_Kong_PropertyCooler_times-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Hong Kong Property Property Industry Hong Kong Property Date 19 October 2017 Industry Update Cooler times Demand/supply dynamics expected to normalize to reflect local demand _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies c

2、overed in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AR

3、E LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Jason Ching, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6205 Franco Lam Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6226 Jeffrey Gao, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6256 Stephen Cheung, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6182 stephen- Foo Leung Research Associate (+852 )

4、2203 6239 Key Changes Company Target Price Rating 0016.HK 124.30 to 122.30(HKD) - 1113.HK 68.60 to 69.30(HKD) - 0004.HK 65.60 to 64.60(HKD) - 0012.HK 47.90 to 47.50(HKD) - 0017.HK 11.10 to 11.00(HKD) - 0083.HK 14.50 to 14.40(HKD) - 0014.HK 32.90 to 32.30(HKD) - 0683.HK 30.10 to 30.00(HKD) - HKLD.SI

5、 6.30 to 6.14(USD) - Source: Deutsche Bank Foreign demand has been a significant booster to the HK property market since 2010. Nevertheless, following various policies targeted at discouraging or limiting foreign demand, we expect demand/supply dynamics to normalize and to reflect local fundamentals

6、. Specifically, following recent measures imposed by the Chinese government to restrict Chinese companies investing in foreign real estate, we expect office cap rates to expand. On factoring in a 25bps cap rate expansion in the next 12 months (from flat previously), we cut our NAV estimates by 0.5%-

7、2.5% and TP by 0%-2.5%. Meanwhile, with fewer foreign players, we anticipate more rational pricing in the land market. Expect 0.5%-2.5% downside risk to NAVs as cap rates normalize Cap rates for HK office properties have historically tracked US 10-year Treasury Yield with an average spread of 120bps

8、. Since hitting a trough in 2016, US 10- year Treasury has risen by 70bps but cap rates have compressed further, driven by an influx of foreign capital. However, this relationship has broken down considerably since 2015 following the influx of Chinese buyers. The current spread of 45bps is the narro

9、west in three years, which is not sustainable, in our view. HK office cap rates should theoretically expand to 3.52% or a 75bps expansion from the current level. Following the restrictions announced by the Chinese government on August 18 on foreign real estate investment by Chinese companies, we exp

10、ect the historical correlation to revert, posing downside risk to NAVs for landlords. On factoring a 25bps cap rate expansion in the next 12 months, HK landlords NAV would decline by 1.5%-2.5%, higher than the 0.6-1.4% for major HK developers. Hongkong Land is the most severely affected, while Kerry

11、 Properties is the least affected. Liquidity is still ample now, but rates may not stay low for too long As liquidity remains abundant, rates have continued to stay low. Although the Prime rate has not followed the US policy rates in the four previous hikes, the expected pick-up in rates in the US (

12、DBe: four by end-FY18E) should narrow the interest rate differentials. In fact, with the majority of the mortgages benchmarked to HIBOR (2017 YTD: 95%), mortgage yields have already picked up over the years but not enough to trigger in swapping to the capped Prime rate (P-rate). For banks to adjust

13、the P-rate, the HIBOR needs to move up more meaningfully from the current level and on a sustained basis our back-of-the envelope analysis showed that banks have a higher inclination to move up the P-rate if the 1M Hibor increases by another 50bp-60bps from current levels. Prefer developers to landl

14、ords; Sell Hysan/HK Land/Henderson We generally prefer developers to landlords as the latter is likely to be more affected by the anticipated normalization in cap rates ahead. We have a Sell rating on Hongkong Land and Hysan and Hold on Hang Lung and Wharf. Among developers, we have a Sell rating on

15、 Henderson as we believe the “Starter Homes” scheme will crowd out private demand for smaller units, and it will likely suffer the most with the largest sales pipeline of small units. Our target prices are based on a sum-of-the-parts approach. Key downside risks to our view include policy tightening

16、 and unexpected fluctuations in the economy, key upside risks are policy and credit loosening. Distributed on: 18/10/2017 23:12:47 GMT 0bed7b6cf11c 19 October 2017 Property Hong Kong Property Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Foreign demand to diminish following policy tightening Expect cap rates to

17、 normalize; land prices to soften Foreign demand has been a significant booster to the Hong Kong property market since 2010. In the residential market, according to Centaline, Chinese buyers once contributed 42% of demand in the primary market in 2011 (14% of overall volume), before shrinking to jus

18、t 15%/18% (10% of overall volume) in 1Q/2Q17 respectively, in light of the additional Stamp Duties imposed on non- permanent residents by the government since 2012. Figure 1: Chinese buyers participation in the primary residential market in Hong Kong Figure 2: Chinese buyers participation in the ove

19、rall residential market in Hong Kong 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 4Q 13 1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q 14 1Q 15 2Q 15 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16 4Q

20、 16 1Q17 * 2Q17 * % o f c o n s i d e rati o n % o f no . o f tran s ac ti o n s 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 4Q 13 1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q 14 1

21、Q 15 2Q 15 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16 4Q 16 1Q 17* 2Q 17 * % o f c o n s i d e r ati o n % o f n o . o f tr an s acti o n s Source: Centaline; Deutsche Bank *Provisional Source: Centaline; Deutsche Bank *Provisional Figure 3: Residential prices versus participation by Chinese buyers 0% 2% 4% 6% 8

22、% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q 08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q 09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q 11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q 12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q 15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q 17* 2Q 17* CCL I n d e x % o f no . o f

23、tran s ac ti o n s Source: Centaline; Deutsche Bank *Provisional 19 October 2017 Property Hong Kong Property Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 Figure 4: Summary of administrative tightening measures introduced Date of introduction Nov-2010 Oct-2012 Feb-2013 Nov-2016 Apr-2017 Measures Special Stamp D

24、uty (SSD) Revision of Special Stamp Duty facilitating export of competitive capacity, equipment and standards; beneficial to international cooperation in advanced technology research and development; exploration and production of overseas natural resources (oil, mineral economical) that pass economi

25、c assessment; promoting agri-business cooperation; international expansion of service industries, in areas of trade, commerce, cultural, logistics, financial Restricted investments related to sensitive destination; in areas of real estate, hotel, film, entertainment, sports clubs; any overseas funds

26、 or platforms without any operating business; outdated production/equipment that does not comply with standards of host country; which does not comply with environmental, energy-consumption, safety standards of host country Prohibited investments export/use of technology (including military industri

27、al), knowhow, products that are not approved or are prohibited for export; gaming and pornography; in violation of international treaties signed; which harm/ may harm national interests and national security Source: Deutsche Bank Outbound flows slow after measures released in 4Q16 In 4Q16, Chinese r

28、egulators, including the NDRC, MOFCOM, PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), have started experimenting with measures to guard against overseas investment risks. The Chinese government has expressed concern with regard to the emerging irrational trends of overseas investment,

29、 while real estate is one of the industries red- flagged for closer scrutiny. The Chinese government has strengthened the examination of overseas investments for their authenticity and for their regulatory compliance. Figure 9: Measures announced in 4Q16 to guard against overseas investment risks Da

30、te Event/Policy document Regulatory takeaways 28-Nov-16 A press conference held by leading officials of NDRC, MOFCOM, PBOC, SAFE - Current recordal system to be used as the main method for administering outbound investments - To guard against overseas investment risk and simplify investment process

31、at the same time 28-Nov-16 A meeting of SAFE and PBOC about the administration of outward flow of funds - A regulatory interview will conducted for any remittance of overseas investment funds on 28 Nov 2016 or after - New SAFE/PBOCs reporting threshold of FX purchase/payment and outbound investment

32、19 October 2017 Property Hong Kong Property Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 29-Nov-16 Circular concerning overseas RMB lending by domestic enterprises (PBOC Notice 306) - Registration with SAFE - Tighten the requirement regarding equity relationship between lender Hongkong Land to be most affected

33、 Following the measures announced by the Chinese government on August 18 to restrict Chinese companies investing in foreign real estate, and given the upcoming rate hike, we expect the historical correlation to revert, thereby posing downside risk to NAVs for landlords. In our analysis, for a 25bps

34、increase in cap rates, HK landlords NAV (Hongkong Land, Hysan, Wharf) would decline by 1.5%-2.5%, higher than 0.6-1.4% for HK developers (CK Asset, Henderson Land, SHKP, Sino Land). Moreover, we expect a 0.6%-0.9% adverse impact on HK landlords EPS in 2018E for a 25bps rate hike, compared to a 0.2%-

35、1.0% EPS impact for developers. Figure 24: Interest rate sensitivity for CK Asset NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -1.3% -0.7% -0.8% -0.7% -0.8% Interest Rate +50bps -2.5% -1.6% -1.6% -1.6% -1.6% Interest Rate +75bps -3.7% -2.4% -2.4% -2.4% -2.4% Interest Rate +100bps

36、 -4.7% -3.3% -3.2% -3.3% -3.2% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 25: Interest rate sensitivity for Hang Lung Properties NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -0.5% -1.1% -1.2% -1.1% -1.2% Interest Rate +50bps -1.0% -2.1% -2.5% -2.1% -2.5% Interest Rate +75bps -1.4% -3

37、.2% -3.7% -3.2% -3.7% Interest Rate +100bps -1.7% -4.2% -4.9% -4.2% -4.9% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 26: Interest rate sensitivity for Henderson Land NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -1.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% Interest Rate +50bps -2.2% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4

38、% -0.3% Interest Rate +75bps -3.1% -0.6% -0.4% -0.6% -0.4% Interest Rate +100bps -4.0% -0.8% -0.6% -0.8% -0.6% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 27: Interest rate sensitivity for Hongkong Land NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -2.5% -0.8% -0.6% -0.8% -0.6% Interes

39、t Rate +50bps -4.9% -1.7% -1.3% -1.7% -1.3% Interest Rate +75bps -7.0% -2.5% -1.9% -2.5% -1.9% Interest Rate +100bps -9.0% -3.3% -2.5% -3.3% -2.5% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 28: Interest rate sensitivity for Hysan NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -1.8% -0.

40、6% -0.5% -0.6% -0.5% Interest Rate +50bps -3.5% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% Interest Rate +75bps -5.0% -1.7% -1.6% -1.7% -1.6% Interest Rate +100bps -6.4% -2.3% -2.1% -2.3% -2.1% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates 19 October 2017 Property Hong Kong Property Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 13 Figure 29: Int

41、erest rate sensitivity for Kerry Properties NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -0.5% -1.4% -1.0% -1.4% -1.0% Interest Rate +50bps -0.9% -2.7% -2.0% -2.7% -2.0% Interest Rate +75bps -1.4% -4.1% -3.0% -4.1% -3.0% Interest Rate +100bps -1.8% -5.5% -4.1% -5.5% -4.1% Source:

42、 Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 30: Interest rate sensitivity for New World Development NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -0.9% -1.6% -1.9% -1.6% -1.9% Interest Rate +50bps -1.7% -3.2% -3.9% -3.2% -3.9% Interest Rate +75bps -2.4% -4.7% -5.8% -4.7% -5.8% Interest Rate +

43、100bps -3.1% -6.3% -7.8% -6.3% -7.8% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 31: Interest rate sensitivity for SHKP NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -1.4% -1.0% -1.1% -1.0% -1.1% Interest Rate +50bps -2.7% -1.8% -2.1% -1.8% -2.1% Interest Rate +75bps -3.9% -2.8% -3.3%

44、-2.8% -3.3% Interest Rate +100bps -5.0% -3.7% -4.4% -3.7% -4.4% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 32: Interest rate sensitivity for Sino Land NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -0.6% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% Interest Rate +50bps -1.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% Interes

45、t Rate +75bps -1.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% Interest Rate +100bps -2.2% -0.7% -0.6% -0.7% -0.6% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates Figure 33: Interest rate sensitivity for Wharf NAV 2018E EPS 2019E EPS 2018E DPS 2019E DPS Interest Rate +25bps -1.5% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% -0.9% Interest Rate +50bps -2.8% -1.

46、7% -1.9% -1.7% -1.9% Interest Rate +75bps -4.1% -2.6% -2.8% -2.6% -2.8% Interest Rate +100bps -5.3% -3.5% -3.7% -3.5% -3.7% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates 19 October 2017 Property Hong Kong Property Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Among the names with the largest NAV/EPS impact from a rate hike,

47、 Hongkong Land has the highest NAV sensitivity to rate hikes, where its NAV would decline by 2.5% on a 25bps rate hike, followed by Hysan with a 1.8% decline and Wharf with a 1.5% decline. On the other hand, New World Dev has the highest EPS sensitivity to rate hikes, where we estimate 2018E EPS wou

48、ld decline by 1.6% on a 25bps rate hike, followed by Kerry Properties at a 1.4% decline. Figure 34: Sensitivity of NAV to a 25/50bps rate hike Base Case NAV Base Case NAV Discount Historical Average NAV Discount If Interest Rate/Cap Rate +25bps If Interest Rate/Cap Rate +50bps Est. NAV NAV Discount

49、Est. NAV NAV Discount CK Asset 109.3 -37% -41% 107.9 -37% 106.5 -36% Hang Lung 27.6 -31% -33% 27.4 -31% 27.3 -30% Henderson Land 70.1 -23% -37% 69.3 -22% 68.5 -21% Hongkong Land 10.5 -26% -25% 10.2 -24% 10.0 -22% Hysan 59.8 -36% -37% 58.7 -36% 57.7 -35% Kerry Properties 61.5 -43% -46% 61.2 -43% 61.0 -43% New World Dev 20