2017年德银-中国-房地产行业-估值标准达到历史平均水平，购买质量微幅下降-20170926-Deutsche Bank-China Property：Valuation normalized to historical average；Buy quality names on dip-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Property Property Industry China Property Date 26 September 2017 Industry Update Valuation normalized to historical average; Buy quality names on dip Buy quality names on dip with decent growth but undemanding valuation _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche

2、Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment

3、decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Jeffrey Gao, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6256 Jason Ching, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6205 Stephen Cheung, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6182 stephen- Foo Leung Research Associate (+85

4、2 ) 2203 6239 Companies Featured China Vanke (2202.HK),HKD24.80 Buy Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK),HKD12.10 Buy KWG (1813.HK),HKD8.00 Buy Future Land Development Hol (1030.HK),HKD3.63 Buy CIFI (0884.HK),HKD4.25 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank After yesterdays share price dip, the China property sector

5、 trades at 7.2x P/E and 36% NAV discount, close to the historical average (7.0x P/E, 42% NAV discount). We attribute this to: 1) weekend policy plays an unexpected trigger; 2) profit taking after sector up 1.1x YTD and valuation close to +1 S.D. of historical average and 3) weakening industry sales

6、growth outlook. After sector re-rating (especially for mid/small-caps), we expect increasing divergence among developers. Share price correction may last a while. We suggest investors Buy quality names on dip (Vanke, Country Garden, KWG, Future Land and CIFI), which trade at undemanding valuation wi

7、th strong earnings growth. Sector valuation normalized to historical average; 2017 rally remains rational if we compare it to 2007 and 2009 We completed a proprietary study (page 2) on the previous bull market for China property stocks in 2007 and 2009. In comparison, the share price rally in 2017 r

8、emains rational (even the sector is up 1.1x YTD on average). If we look at the peak valuation last week, forward P/E for 17 developers was at 8.1x vs. 2007s 58x (7 stocks) and 2009s 18x (11 stocks); P/B was at 1.5x vs. 2007s 5.6x and 2009s 2.2x and NAV discount look reasonable at a 27% discount vs.

9、2007s 115% premium and 2009s at par. So far, most of the stocks that have rallied have solid sales/earnings growth and reasonable NAV discounts. After yesterdays share price dip, the current sector valuation returned to close to the historical average: 7.2x P/E and a 35% discount to NAV (vs. 7.0x P/

10、E and 42% for the historical average). Policy plays a trigger for share price dip, but with limited impact; physical market growth moderating but sector remains healthy vs. 2014 cycle Over the weekend, eight cities announced further policy tightening on restricting property owners from re-selling in

11、 a certain period after purchase. We believe the impact to the physical market would be immaterial, given the low inventory level, and it may even drive buyers from the secondary market to the primary market in the medium term. However, eight cities being expected to announce policy tightening toget

12、her conveys a negative signal on future policy trend, and may dampen overall investor sentiment. Considering the credit/policy tightening and high base last year, we expect industry sales growth to moderate. However, the overall market remains healthy compared to the 2014 cycle in terms of inventory

13、 (Figure 3 on pg. 3), borrowing cost and market consolidation level. Therefore, we do not expect the market to repeat the 2014 cycle. Sector performance to diverge; Buy quality names on share price dip While we think the logic on favoring property stocks remains valid, including: 1) marketing consol

14、idation to improve overall sales growth visibility of listed developers; 2) lower borrowing cost to improve developers profitability and make them less vulnerable to downturn in the market and 3) faster asset churn to improve developers cash flow, we also see increasing share price divergence from t

15、he current levels. We suggest investors Buy quality names after share price correction, including Vanke, Country Garden, KWG, Future Land and CIFI, which have either a solid track record and strong execution, or abundant saleable resources to support the next few years growth. Also, they are trading

16、 at undemanding valuations that are lower than the sector average. We value stocks using NAV for existing projects. Key risks are further credit/policy tightening. Distributed on: 25/09/2017 19:24:25 GMT 0bed7b6cf11c 26 September 2017 Property China Property Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Figure

17、1: Peak-trough comparison of the past cycles A v e r ag e Me d ia n A v e r ag e Me d ia n A v e r ag e Me d ia n A v e r ag e Me d ia n P e a k v s t ro u g h % c h a n g e 8 .1 x 5 .0 x 3 .7 x 3 .9 x 2 .7 x 1 .5 x 2 .3 x 1 .3 x P e a k N A V d i s c o u n t 115% 71% 0% - 6 % - 2 7 % - 2 9 % - 3 5

18、% - 3 8 % P e a k f o rw a rd P E 5 8 .3 5 4 .9 1 7 .6 1 5 .9 8 .1 8 .0 7 .2 7 .5 P e a k f o rw a rd P B 5 .6 3 .9 2 .2 2 .1 1 .5 1 .3 1 .3 1 .1 # o f d e v e l o p e rs 2 0 0 5 - 0 6 t r o u g h v s 2 0 0 7 p e ak 2 0 0 8 t r o u g h v s 2 0 0 9 p e ak 2 0 1 5 - 1 6 t r o u g h v s 2 0 1 7 p e ak

19、at 2 5 S e p , 2 0 1 7 7 11 17 17 Source: Deutsche Bank Figure 2: YTD share price performance 457% 396% 179% 179% 173% 128% 109% 103% 96% 95% 89% 82% 82% 66% 55% 50% 43% 40% 36% 27% 24% 6% - 10% Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank 26 September 2017 Property China Property Deutsche Bank AG/Ho

20、ng Kong Page 3 Figure 3: Cycle comparison between 2014 and 2017 in high-tier cities C y c l e s 2014 2017F H o m e p u rc h a s e re s t ri c t i o n s (# o f c i t i e s ) 4 0 5 0 C re d i t 1 s t -h o m e d o w n -p a y m e n t ra t i o 3 0 -4 0 % 3 0 -4 0 % M o rt g a g e b e n c h m a rk ra t e

21、6 . 6 0 % 5 . 1 0 % P r e m i u m /d i s c o u n t to b e n c h m a r k r a te 0 -1 5 % p re m i u m 5 -1 0 % p re m i u m A v e ra g e 1 s t -h o m e m o rt g a g e ra t e 7 % 5 . 1 % M o rt g a g e a p p ro v a l p e ri o d 1 -2 m o n t h s 1 -2 m o n t h A v e ra g e y i e l d o f t ru s t p ro d

22、 u c t s 9 % 6 . 5 % In v e n t o ry (m o n t h ) T 1 c i t i e s 1 2 . 8 7 . 8 T 2 c i t i e s 1 7 . 5 7 . 0 T 3 c i t i e s 1 9 . 5 1 1 . 1 T o p -3 0 d e v e l o p e rs m a rk e t s h a re (b y s a l e s v a l u e ) 2 6 . 1 0 % 4 0 . 8 % i n 1 H 1 7 Source: CREIS, CRIC, CEIC, Rong360, Deutsche Ba

23、nk estimates Figure 4: Sector valuation table Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank estimates 25 Sep Mkt Cap Latest Target Up/down- NAV Company Ticker (USD mn) Price Price side Rating FY17F FY18F FY19F FY16 FY17F NAV discount FY16 FY17F FY18F Agile 3383 HK 5,459 10.80 9.40 -13% Hold 8.1 7.2 6.

24、4 1.0 0.9 18.80 -43% 71% 4.9% 5.6% China SCE 1966 HK 1,905 3.86 4.41 14% Buy 6.4 4.5 3.8 1.3 1.2 8.02 -52% 95% 4.7% 6.7% CIFI 884 HK 4,124 4.25 4.82 13% Buy 6.9 5.6 4.4 1.6 1.4 6.89 -38% 50% 4.8% 6.2% COLI 688 HK 35,979 25.45 30.63 20% Buy 7.7 6.8 6.1 1.3 1.1 34.03 -25% 7% 3.5% 4.0% Country Garden 2

25、007 HK 33,319 12.10 13.22 9% Buy 13.2 8.4 5.6 3.2 2.7 20.34 -41% 49% 2.6% 3.6% CR Land 1109 HK 21,240 23.75 27.11 14% Buy 8.8 7.5 6.5 1.4 1.2 33.89 -30% 24% 3.4% 4.0% Future Land 1030 HK 2,650 3.63 5.17 42% Buy 6.9 5.1 4.2 1.9 1.6 9.41 -61% 89% 3.6% 4.9% Gemdale 600383 CH 7,888 11.63 10.06 -13% Sell

26、 9.1 8.3 7.8 1.4 1.3 14.37 -19% 28% 6.6% 7.2% Greentown 3900 HK 2,629 9.41 9.13 -3% Hold 8.1 7.3 6.6 0.7 0.7 16.61 -43% 84% 1.6% 1.8% GZ R ( ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equit

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