2017年汇丰银行-中国-房地产行业-中国房地产：政策冲击降低了风险偏好-20170925-HSBC-China Real Estate：Policy shock amid unrelenting bullishness brings lower risk appetite-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、Disclosures expectations of potential policy relaxation wiped out Reiterate our cautious tone on China s property sector Expectations of policy relaxation wiped out amid a new round of measures targeted at controlling housing re-sales. Over the weekend, six cities came out with another round of poli

2、cy controls, which restrict home re-sales, including Chongqing, Nanchang, Nanning, Changsha, Guiyang, and Shijiazhuang. Homeowners are generally prohibited from re-selling their homes within 2-5 years after obtaining real estate certificates. Xian and Wuhan also introduced cooling measures on housin

3、g ASPs and developers sales activities. The new measures are targeted at further enhancing market control to prevent speculation in the housing market, in our view. Timing of the new policies sends a clear message that the government will keep a tight grip on the housing market. While our view is th

4、at the policy environment should remain unchanged, we contend the timing of the new policies is somewhat surprising, given the 19th Party Congress is scheduled for next month. In our view, this new round of measures provides a clear indication that the government will continue to closely monitor dev

5、elopments in the housing market and that cities with persistently strong home price growth will be under scrutiny. Indeed, NBS data shows that cities that have implemented new policies experienced rapid housing ASP growth in August, with Changsha and Xian registering y-o-y increase of 16.5% and 13.4

6、%, respectively. Reiterate our view that risk appetite could decline towards year-end. Last week, we turned more cautious on Chinas property sector as we argue that investors should take the opportunity to lock in gains after a record-breaking nine months (see China Real Estate Caution: Entering a p

7、eriod of lower risk appetite, 21 September 2017). The new measures will likely cool market sentiment and serve to dampen sky-high growth expectations. We reiterate our cautious tone and advise investors to stay selective. Our preferred names include COLI (688 HK, HKD27.30, Buy) as a quality laggard,

8、 and Longfor (960 HK, HKD21.65, Buy) due to its balanced approach between scale and profitability. Fundamentally, a key risk to the sector remains tightened liquidity, which could impact developers contracted sales momentum. 25 September 2017 Michelle Kwok* Head of Real Estate Research, Asia Pacific

9、 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6918 Jizhou Dong*, CFA Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk Albert Tam* Associate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2822 4395 Simon Sin* Associate The Hongkong and Shanghai

10、Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6514 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations China Real Estate EQUITIES REAL ESTATE China Policy shock amid unrelenting bullishness brings lower risk appetite EQUITIES REAL

11、ESTATE 25 September 2017 2 Summary table of recent policy controls National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) price changes Top 30 cities with the highest home ASP y-o-y growth of August Source: NBS, HSBC. Note: Circled cities refers to those releasing the latest policies. 6 . 0 8 . 0 1 0 . 0 1 2 . 0 1 4 .

12、 0 1 6 . 0 1 8 . 0 A u g u s t h o me A S P g r o w t h y - o - y % City Tier Date Reselling restrictions Chongqing 2 Sep-17 Chongqing will ban the re-sale of new and secondary residential homes in downtown districts within two years after home buyers obtain the certificate of realty ownership. Nanc

13、hang 2 Sep-17 Nanchang in Jiangxi Province will ban households from reselling their new residential flats in all districts within two years after the household obtains the certificate of realty ownership. Nanning 2 Sep-17 Nanning will ban companies from reselling second residential properties in dow

14、ntown districts within two years after they obtain the certificate of realty ownership. Changsha 2 Sep-17 Changsha in Hunan Province bans households from reselling residential properties in downtown districts within three years after the household obtains the certificate of realty ownership. Guiyang

15、 2 Sep-17 Guiyang in Guizhou Province will ban households from reselling new homes within three years after the household obtains the certificate of realty ownership. Shijiazhuang 3 Sep-17 Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province will ban households from reselling second homes within five years after the hous

16、ehold obtains the certificates of realty ownership and eight years for the third home. Wuhan 2 Sep-17 The government of Wuhan in Hubei Province requires developers not to charge home buyers purchase deposits or prepayments in the form of membership fees, subscription fees or selling financial produc

17、ts. Developers should not request home buyers to make lump sum payments or impose additional conditions to gain priority in selecting flats. Xian 2 Sep-17 Developers will register pre-sale prices and seek approval prior to receiving pre-sale permits. Developers should not charge additional fees by p

18、roviding utilities and public amenities. Shenyang 3 Aug-17 Inside the districts of Sanhuan and Hunnan, a local households second home (primary property) can be re-sold in the market five years after the owner completes the online signing of the purchase contract. The re-sale restriction for secondar

19、y homes is two years after the homeowners have received the certificate of realty. Local households will not be subject to re-sale restrictions if the property purchased is the only home they possess. For non-local households, the re-sale rule is five years for primary homes purchased and two years

20、for secondary homes. Zhuhai 3 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell properties in the market until three years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Dongguan 2 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell properties in the market until two years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownershi

21、p. Chengdu 2 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell properties in the market until three years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Huizhou 3 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell properties in the market until three years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Changzhou 3 A

22、pr-17 Residents will be able to sell properties in the market until two years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Yangzhou 3 Apr-17 Local residents will be able to sell their second home and non-local households will not be able to see their first home in the market until two years af

23、ter obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Chengde 3 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell their second homes in the market until two years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Hainan 2 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell their second homes in the market until two years after o

24、btaining a certificate of realty ownership and three years for company buyers. Jinan 2 Apr-17 Residents will be able to sell their second homes in the market until two years after obtaining a certificate of realty ownership. Fuzhou 2 Mar-17 The second homes of local households and the first homes of

25、 non-local households can be sold in the market at least two years after the buyers obtain the required certificate of realty. Guangzhou 1 Mar-17 Households are allowed to sell properties (purchased after 30 March 2017) two years after obtaining the certificate of realty ownership, while the require

26、ment is three years for corporate buyers. Qingdao 2 Mar-17 Qingdao allows households to sell new homes or secondary homes two years after obtaining the certificate of realty ownership. Xiamen 2 Mar-17 Xiamen restricts single and divorced residents to purchasing one home, which can be sold in the mar

27、ket two years after obtaining the certificate of realty ownership. Hangzhou 2 Mar-17 Hangzhou will ban companies from reselling properties in downtown districts within three years after the companies obtain the certificate of realty ownership. Source: Government releases, HSBC 3 EQUITIES REAL ESTATE

28、 25 September 2017 Top 30 cities with the highest home ASP m-o-m growth of August Source: NBS, HSBC. Note: Circled cities refers to those releasing the latest policies. Valuation summary 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9 1 . 0 1 . 1 1 . 2 A u g u s t h o m e A S P g r o w t h m - o - m % Com

29、pany Ticker Rating Price (HKD) Target Price (HKD) Upside/ (Downside) (%) Mkt Cap (USD bn) 3M ADTV (USDm) NAV (HKD/sh) (Disc)/ Prem (%) FY16a PE (x) FY17e PE (x) FY18e PE (x) FY16e Yield (%) FY17e Yield (%) FY16a PB (x) FY16a Net gearing Agile 3383 HK Hold 12.16 12.00 (1) 6.1 16.6 23.9 (49) 15.9 10.0

30、 7.8 3.7 4.3 1.1 105 COLI 688 HK Buy 27.30 33.40 22 38.3 80.0 37.2 (27) 8.9 8.1 6.6 2.8 3.7 1.3 7 CRL 1109 HK Buy 25.65 32.20 26 22.8 40.4 40.3 (36) 10.9 9.7 8.6 2.7 3.1 1.5 28 CG 2007 HK Reduce 13.58 6.50 (52) 37.1 67.8 8.7 56 26.3 17.8 13.7 1.4 2.1 4.0 74 China Jinmao 817 HK Hold 4.33 4.05 (6) 5.9

31、 18.6 9.0 (52) 20.7 9.3 8.1 2.1 6.3 1.6 112 GZRF 2777 HK Hold 20.15 19.20 (5) 8.3 24.6 38.4 (48) 9.1 6.3 5.2 5.4 6.3 1.4 224 Joy City 207 HK Hold 1.51 1.40 (7) 2.8 2.0 4.5 (66) 67.3 19.7 17.0 5.7 2.5 0.7 35 KWG 1813 HK Hold 9.43 8.30 (12) 3.8 14.1 27.5 (66) 9.0 7.0 5.7 5.8 5.8 1.1 72 Longfor 960 HK

32、Buy 21.65 25.40 17 16.3 15.4 39.0 (44) 15.0 12.3 9.7 2.3 2.8 1.9 66 Shimao 813 HK Buy 17.38 20.60 19 7.5 14.7 34.4 (49) 8.8 7.4 5.9 4.4 4.3 1.1 91 SOL 272 HK Hold 2.11 2.30 9 2.2 4.4 7.7 (73) 14.1 11.0 9.7 1.5 1.9 0.4 112 Sino-Ocean 3377 HK Buy 5.41 7.10 31 5.2 9.6 14.1 (62) 14.7 9.6 8.0 2.5 3.5 0.9

33、 56 SOHO China 410 HK Hold 5.03 4.90 (3) 3.3 7.1 12.3 (59) 56.0 49.7 52.3 11.5 8.0 0.7 32 Yanlord (SGD) YLLG SP Buy 1.83 2.10 15 2.6 4.2 3.8 (52) 7.4 5.2 4.6 2.3 3.3 0.8 24 Average (45) 20.3 13.1 11.6 3.9 4.2 1.3 74.2 Average excluding Joy City and SOHO and Shui On Land (39) 13.3 9.3 7.6 3.2 4.2 1.5

34、 78.1 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates. Priced as at 22 September 2017. EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 25 September 2017 4 Valuation Risks Longfor 960 HK Current price: HKD21.65 Target price: HKD25.40 Upside: 17% Our fair value target price of HKD25.40 is based on a target discount of 35% (1 SD above the his

35、torical mean since 2009) applied to our NAV estimate of HKD39.00 per share. With 17% upside to our target price from the current share price, we have a Buy rating on the stock as we believe it is well positioned to gain further market dominance, supported by its consistent land bank replenishment. K

36、ey downside risks: failure to replicate its success when entering new markets or overspending on land bank expansion; slower-than-expected contracted sales momentum; achieving lower-than-expected ASPs; and uncertainties related to macro and property-specific policies. Buy Michelle Kwok* | .hk | +852

37、 2996 6918 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited COLI 688 HK Current price: HKD27.30 Target price: HKD33.40 Upside: 22% Our fair value target price of HKD33.40 is based on a target discount of 10% (+0.5 SD above the historical mean since 2000) applied to our NAV estimate of HKD37.20

38、per share. With 22% upside to our target price from the current share price, we have a Buy rating on the stock as it is well-positioned to maintain a sector-leading margin profile. Key downside risks: slower-than-expected contracted sales momentum; achieving lower- than-expected ASPs; uncertainties

39、associated with recent management changes; and uncertainties related to macro and property- specific policies. Buy Michelle Kwok* | .hk | +852 2996 6918 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Priced as at 22 September 2017. *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,

40、 and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Source: HSBC estimates 5 EQUITIES REAL ESTATE 25 September 2017 Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s

41、) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s), any views or forecasts expres

42、sed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be

43、directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Michelle Kwok, Jizhou Dong, CFA, Albert Tam and Simon Sin Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes an investors decision to buy or sell a s

44、tock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investors existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment

45、advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire resea

46、rch report and not infer its contents from the rating because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts views and the basis for the rating. From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analysts assessment of

47、the stocks actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock ma

48、y be classified as a Buy or a Hold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between 5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20% below the current

49、 share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any material change (initiation or resumption of coverage, change in target price or estimates). Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price. Prior to this date, HSBCs rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a re