2017年德银-中国-房地产行业（个股-碧桂圆）-可持续增长伴随着良好的运营现金流-20170926-Positive operating cash flow with sustainable growth-Deutsche Bank-佰策地产文库.pdf

《2017年德银-中国-房地产行业（个股-碧桂圆）-可持续增长伴随着良好的运营现金流-20170926-Positive operating cash flow with sustainable growth-Deutsche Bank-佰策地产文库.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2017年德银-中国-房地产行业（个股-碧桂圆）-可持续增长伴随着良好的运营现金流-20170926-Positive operating cash flow with sustainable growth-Deutsche Bank-佰策地产文库.pdf（12页珍藏版）》请在佰策地产文库上搜索。

1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Buy Asia China Property Property Company Country Garden Holdings Date 26 September 2017 Forecast Change Positive operating cash flow with sustainable growth Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker 2007.HK 2007 HK HSI 2007 ADR Ticker ISIN CTRYY US22234X1090 Forecasts A

2、nd Ratios Year End Dec 31 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Sales (CNYm) 113,222.6 153,087.0 188,650.2 290,703.5 449,931.2 DB EPS growth (%) -7.0 20.8 45.5 57.2 48.5 PER (x) 5.7 5.5 12.9 8.2 5.5 DPS (net) (CNY) 0.13 0.17 0.27 0.37 0.55 Yield (net) (%) 5.0 5.8 2.6 3.6 5.4 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates,

3、 company data Maintaining top pick for sustainable strong sales and earnings growth _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect

4、 the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Price at 25 Sep 2017 (HKD) 12.10 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 13.22 52-week range (

5、HKD) 14.24 - 3.87 HANG SENG INDEX 27,881 Jeffrey Gao, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6256 Jason Ching, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6205 Stephen Cheung, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6182 stephen- Foo Leung Research Associate (+852 ) 2203 6239 Key changes TP 11.53 to 13.22 14.7% Op pr

6、of margin(FYE) 14.5 to 15.0 3.1% Net profit(FYE) 16,703.7 to 16,885.5 1.1% Source: Deutsche Bank Price/price relative 0 4 8 12 16 9/15 3/16 9/16 3/17 Country Garden Holdi HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute 22.2 38.8 181.4 HANG SENG INDEX 0.1 8.6 17.7 Source: Deutsche Bank W

7、e maintain our Buy rating and lift our target price to HKD13.22 on 1) stronger sales growth (lift 2017-18F sales growth by 3-14%), supported by RMB1.7tr of saleable resources, 2) higher earnings growth, boosted by a better gross margin, and 3) latest landbanking. Given its strong execution and fast

8、asset churn, we believe Country Garden will achieve positive operating cash flow, while sustaining double-digit sales growth in 2018F. Also, we think it will continue with share purchases (latest share repurchase price at HKD12.00 on 13 September) to support the share price and boost its ROE to 20%.

9、 We maintain Country Garden as one of our top picks among the large caps. Double-digit sales growth sustainable via boosted landbanking The company remains proactive in landbanking, acquiring 11.9m sqm of new land in July (vs. 50.8m sqm in 1H17). We estimate these new projects could add RMB135bn sal

10、eable resources to form a total landbank of RMB1.7tr (equivalent to 3.1x 2017F sales). We forecast sales to reach RMB548bn this year (+77% y-y) and RMB600bn in 2018F, even without further land acquisitions. We think the company can accumulate sufficient land to boost its contracted sales growth furt

11、her in 2018, assuming such a landbanking pace. Strong execution secures positive operating cash flow Thanks to its strong execution in launching pre-sales on average within seven months post land acquisitions and realizing cash flow breakeven within nine months, we expect the company to continue to

12、achieve positive operating cash flow this year, despite its aggressive landbanking. For example, during 1H17, the company achieved RMB16.4bn positive operating cash flow, even having spent RMB135bn on land acquisitions. We think this fast asset churn business model will continue to position it well

13、for potential M and 2) we use a cap-rate approach (cap rate between 5% and 9%) to value investment properties. In our model, we assume full prepayment of the land appreciation tax. In terms of property price assumptions, we assume prices will drop 5% in T1 and T2 cities in 2017F and remain flat ther

14、eafter. For T3 cities, we assume 3% property price growth in 2017F and prices to remain flat thereafter. Our target price is based on a 35% discount to our NAV estimate. The rationale for such a target discount is based on eight key measures of the companies we cover (product quality, landbank quali

15、ty, scale, leverage, growth prospects, profitability, financing advantages and execution). Our target price implies 9.1x FY18E P/E (EPS: RMB1.24) and 3.0x FY17E P/B. The benchmark index for the stock is MSCI China. Risks Macro risks: Government property tightening measures might be stricter than exp

16、ected, which could result in volatile moves in housing transaction volumes, housing prices, land prices, and financing available to developers and homebuyers. The unexpected economic fluctuations in the Chinese economy also add risks to the sector. In addition, potential RMB depreciation could resul

17、t in FX losses for developers with offshore financing. Company-specific risks: 1) weaker-than-expected property sales in low-tier cities due to policy/credit tightening; and 2) inability to acquire quality landbank to sustain its fast growth. 26 September 2017 Property Country Garden Holdings Page 4

18、 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Figure 1: Country Garden: NAV discount chart La te st: - 41% Av e ra ge : - 21% + 1 S.D.: + 7% - 1 S.D.: - 48% - 80% - 60 % - 40% - 20% 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 10 0% Jan -10 Ap r- 10 Ju l- 10 Oc t- 10 Jan -11 Ap r- 11 Ju l- 11 Oct- 11 Jan -12 Ap r- 12 Ju l- 12 Oct- 12 Jan

19、-13 Ap r- 13 Ju l- 13 Oct- 13 Jan -14 Ap r- 14 Ju l- 14 Oct- 14 Jan -15 Apr- 15 Ju l- 15 Oct- 15 Jan -16 Ap r- 16 Ju l- 16 Oct- 16 Jan -17 Ap r- 17 Ju l- 17 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company data, Deutsche Bank Figure 2: Country Garden: 12-month forward P/E chart Late st: 9.3 x Av e ra ge : 6.3x

20、 + 1 S.D.: 7.6x - 1 S.D.: 5.0x 2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan -10 Ju l- 10 Jan -11 Ju l- 11 Jan -12 Ju l- 12 Jan -13 Ju l- 13 Jan -14 Ju l- 14 Jan -15 Ju l- 15 Jan -16 Ju l- 16 Jan -17 Ju l- 17 (x) Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company data, Deutsche Bank 26 September 2017 Property Country Garden Holdings Deutsc

21、he Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 5 Figure 3: Country Garden: price-to-book value chart Late st: 2.9 x Av e ra ge : 1.3x + 1 S.D.: 1.7x - 1 S.D.: 0.9 x 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Jan -10 Ju l- 10 Jan -11 Ju l- 11 Jan -12 Ju l- 12 Jan -13 Ju l- 13 Jan -14 Ju l- 14 Jan -15 Ju l- 15 Jan -16 Ju l- 16 Jan -

22、17 Ju l- 17 (x) Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company data, Deutsche Bank 26 September 2017 Property Country Garden Holdings Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure Count

23、ry Garden Holdings 2007.HK 12.10 (HKD) 25 Sep 17 1,7,14 Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and

24、other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http:/ Aside from within this report, impo

25、rtant conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under the “Disclosures Lookup“ and “Legal“ tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at lea

26、st one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 1. Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering for this company, for which it received fees. 7.

27、Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this company within t

28、he past year. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes. 1. Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering

29、 for this company, for which it received fees. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securiti

30、es other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http:/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analys

31、t(s) about the subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Jeffrey Gao/Jason Ching/Stephen Cheung/Foo Leung 26 September 2017 Property Count

32、ry Garden Holdings Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 7 Historical recommendations and target price: Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK) (as of 9/25/2017) 1 23 4 5 0 .0 0 2 . 0 0 4 . 0 0 6 . 0 0 8 .0 0 1 0 . 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 1 4 . 0 0 1 6 . 0 0 Se p 1 5 Dec 1 5 Mar 1 6 Ju n 1 6 Se p 1 6 Dec 1 6 Mar 1 7 Ju n

33、 1 7 S e cu r ity P r ice D a te Previous Recommendations Strong Buy Buy Market Perform Underperform Not Rated Suspended Rating Current Recommendations Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Suspended Rating *New Recommendation Structure as of September 9,2002 *Analyst is no longer at Deutsche Bank 1. 16/03/2016:

34、Sell, Target Price Change HKD2.45 Jason Ching 4. 06/07/2017: Buy, Target Price Change HKD10.52 Jeffrey Gao 2. 20/03/2017: Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change HKD7.48 Jeffrey Gao 5. 22/08/2017: Buy, Target Price Change HKD11.53 Jeffrey Gao 3. 22/03/2017: Buy, Target Price Change HKD7.72 Jeffrey Gao E

35、quity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock. S

36、ell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supe

37、rsede previously published research. 5 4 % 3 5 % 1 1 %1 8 % 1 9 % 1 2 % 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 B u y H o l d S e ll A sia - P acif ic U n iv erse C omp a n i e s C ov e r e d C os . w / Ba n k i n g R e l a ti on s h i p 26 September 2017 Property Country Garden Holdings Page 8 Deu

38、tsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively “Deutsche Bank“). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reli

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