2017年戴德梁行-房地产投资报告（英文）-2017-24页-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 02 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03 AVAILABLE CAPITAL 04 TARGET PROFILE 08 INVESTOR PROFILE 12 OUTLOOK 16 CONTACTS 18THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 1INTRODUCTION WELCOME TO THE LATEST ISSUE OF CUSHMAN and, we see this as a likely tailwind supporting further allocations to well positioned asset

2、types. The fall in available equity to be invested across EMEA in 2017 is largely a reflection of a strong dollar. When EMEA equity volumes are viewed on a euro equivalent basis, available equity was flat at 69bn. With close to 80% of funds targeting Europe reporting in either euros or pounds, the c

3、urrency context of reported volumes is a key component. Europe continues to show strong signs of recovery and economic growth which should continue to support allocations to the region. Reflecting growing investor demand, Asia Pacific registered a strong 7% rise in available equity to $65bn. We expe

4、ct to see this growth continue as investors pursue the higher, long run growth potential associated with the region. New sectors and geographies are attracting global capital and adding to the supply of investable stock. From strategies targeting core offices in India to the development of warehouse

5、s in China, the region is increasingly offering opportunities across the risk return spectrum. AVAILABLE EQUITY FOR INVESTMENT, USD BN THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 5DEBT LEVELS DOWN GLOBALLY The amount of debt available for global real estate in 2017 is down on 2016, reflecting a drop off in loan origi

6、nations. Banks and alternative lenders saw a large rise in new debt origination from 2014-2016, but this trend appears to have moderated in 2016 alongside a slowdown in investment transaction volumes. The lending market seems relatively unchanged with moderate loan-to-value (LTV) ratios trending mar

7、ginally lower. The lack of funding for development remains a key challenge. Lenders are also lending against a narrower range of asset type than in the past, suggesting that recent regulatory changes may be inadvertently driving concentration AMERICAS 57% 2016 54% 2017 ASIA PACIFIC 54% 2016 51% 2017

8、 EMEA 48% 2016 44% 2017 risk amongst lenders. There is a clear distinction between prime and secondary real estate loans with fewer lenders willing to quote margins for secondary property. The average LTV globally is c. 50%, underscoring reduced risk of loan books in breach of financial covenant or

9、default. EMEA continues to have the most conservative average LTV levels at 44%, down from 48% a year ago. In sharp contrast to the US, the European funding model continues to be dominated by commercial banks with a relatively small but growing source of alternative lenders. LTV BY TARGET REGION AND

10、 YEAR, USD BN THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 6THE AMOUNT OF EQUITY THAT FUNDS HAVE ALREADY RAISED AND IS IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE TO DEPLOY IS UP 5% ON A YEAR AGO. DURING THE COURSE OF 2016, A NUMBER OF FUNDS ANNOUNCED SIGNIFICANT CLOSINGS. PAG, THE ASIAN PRIVATE EQUITY AND INVESTMENT FIRM, ANNOUNCED A SECO

11、ND CLOSE OF ITS ASIAN FUND WITH $1.3BN OF COMMITMENTS, WHILST BLACKSTONE REGISTERED A 5.5BN CLOSE ON ITS LATEST EUROPEAN FUND. RAISED EQUITY UP 5% AVAILABLE EQUITY FOR INVESTMENT BY YEAR AND TARGET REGION RAISED VS RAISING, USD BN The amount of new equity that funds are currently seeking to raise in

12、 the market is on the decline (19% globally), with the Americas and EMEA reporting the sharpest falls. The reduction in new equity raisings is not a surprise as funds seek to focus on deploying capital against the backdrop of strong competition and scarcity of product. That said, we have seen a numb

13、er of funds return to the market over the past few months; notably, the global blockbuster managers who have been particularly successful in raising and deploying capital. Blackstone is reported to be targeting a second $5bn Pan Asia Fund having deployed 70% of capital in its first Asia fund, while

14、Morgan Stanley is reported to be targeting 2bn of equity for a new global fund. THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 7TARGET PROFILE DIVERSIFIED FUND STRATEGIES DOMINATE; RESIDENTIAL REMAINS PREFERRED SINGLE EXPOSURE The majority of real estate capital remains targeted at diversified strategies not single sect

15、or exposures. However, this balance of preference is changing with single sector strategies up 55% over the last three years. TARGET PROPERTY TYPE 2017 25% Residential 12% Other 15% Office 19% Retail 21% Industrial 8% Hotel 31% Single 69% Multiple Of funds targeting a single property type, residenti

16、al remains the clear preference. US funds targeting the domestic, multi-family sector continue to be sought after despite a long run of exceptional returns post GFC. In Europe, the primary target markets for residential fund strategies are Germany, the Netherlands and parts of the Nordic region. Inv

17、estors are particularly attracted to the supply/demand imbalance driven by population growth in many residential markets across European capital cities. The scale of opportunity for residential investment across Europe is only beginning to open up as the sector moves to a more institutionally compat

18、ible level of organisation and management. While still a long way off the maturity of the US multi-family sector, it is hard to ignore the opportunity in the European residential sector. Across Asia Pacific, China continues to dominate the residential fund offering. Despite the market hitting new hi

19、ghs in 2016, the central government has worked to maintain investor sentiment while clearing an oversupply of units in smaller cities. The growth in funds targeting single property types partly reflects growing interest in assets that require more specialist asset management, or where collective inv

20、estment allows investors to target assets with a larger lot size, e.g. shopping centres. This trends is expected to increase as more investors target alternative asset classes ranging from car parks to hotels and healthcare. THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 8NORTH AMERICA REMAINS THE LEAST GLOBAL REGION WI

21、TH DOMESTIC INVESTORS REPRESENTING CLOSE TO THREE QUARTERS OF CAPITAL. BY WAY OF CONTRAST, CLOSE TO 40% OF NEW CAPITAL RAISED AND TARGETING ASIA PACIFIC AND EMEA IS DERIVED FROM OUTSIDE THEIR RESPECTIVE REGIONS. THAT SAID, WE DO SEE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN INTRA-REGIONAL ACTIVITY COMING AT THE EXPENS

22、E OF DOMESTIC FLOWS. OVERALL, WE EXPECT LEVELS OF CROSS BORDER INVESTMENT TO REMAIN STRONG WITH THE SOURCES AND TARGETS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AS INVESTORS REACT TO A HIGHLY COMPETITIVE MARKET. The United States understandably (based on market capitalisation) takes top slot in the ranking of total ava

23、ilable capital. The top European markets are also the biggest by investable market size and include the Big 3 of Germany, France and the UK. Less obvious are the four APAC markets which register in the top ten single country target markets China, Japan, Australia and India. We can estimate the amoun

24、t of overall capital targeting major markets by making allocations based on capital flows over the last three years. Of course, this is a simple method to gauge interest and does not take into account shifting investor preferences as cycles mature and prospective returns get squeezed. FOCUS ON SINGL

25、E MARKET STRATEGIES CONTINUES TO GROW Single country funds have increased in popularity, representing 61% of available capital, as investors look to more targeted exposures. The Americas has retained the highest market share, despite slipping year on year, but will be interesting to watch as we move

26、 into the latter stages of the market cycle. Both Asia Pacific and EMEA, which are arguably in earlier stages of the market cycle, have seen their respective shares rise over the year. TARGET GEOGRAPHY 2017 39% Multiple 61% Single 34% ASIA PACIFIC 25% EMEA 41% AMERICAS THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 9BAS

27、ED ON OUR ANALYSIS, THE US IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE MOST TARGETED INVESTMENT MARKET IN 2017. ALTHOUGH INVESTMENT ACTIVITY HAS SLOWED DURING 2016, THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY TARGETING THE REGION REMAINS HIGH WITH MANY INVESTORS STILL UNDER ALLOCATED TO THE SECTOR VIS-VIS INVESTMENT INTENTIONS. China is e

28、xpected to remain the second most targeted country with a majority of capital committed from domestic funds. There are also a number of overseas funds, including a number domiciled in the US, seeking a foothold in China as rapid economic development provides a growing investment base. We expect rela

29、tively less capital to target the UK as some investors take a wait and see approach against the uncertain political and economic backdrop of Brexit negotiations. Liquidity has dropped in the wake of the EU referendum vote, and we could see some capital diverted to other markets. The City of London (

30、financial district) has been impacted by expectations of falling financial and business service employment in the event of an exit from the single market. The cautious outlook towards London office exposure has been characterised more in terms of transaction delays rather than pricing adjustments. T

31、hat said, some investors are keenly waiting on the side lines for more product to come to market in the event of pricing weakness. Japan remains Asias second most targeted market, but fourth globally, and continues to attract a strong level of capital. Similar to the US, the majority of capital targ

32、eting Japan is domestic reflecting the strength of the local J-REIT capital base and a strong home bias on the part of investors. In an interesting twist, the biggest change to Japans capital base is the growth of other Asian investors. Japans property market is luring more attention from pan Asian

33、regional investors keen to reap capital gains or achieve high yields not available at home with a long-term view of holding their assets. No doubt a weaker Yen and the upcoming Tokyo Olympics 2020 is generating some enthusiasm, but we expect this to be an enduring trend. Germany also continues to se

34、e strong levels of demand from investors attracted to its strong economic performance and relative safe haven status and could benefit from some capital being diverted away from the UK. The challenge, especially for core funds, is accessing suitably priced stock. THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 10AVAILABL

35、E CAPITAL BY TARGET COUNTRY 2017, USD BN HUNGARY CZECH REP. BELGIUM POLAND DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY ITALY INDIA BRAZIL SPAIN SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS HONG KONG SWEDEN CANADA FRANCE AUSTRALIA 0 20 THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 11INVESTOR PROFILE FUND TYPES UNLISTED FUNDS REMAIN THE DOMINANT SOURCE OF CAPITAL,

36、 BUT LISTED COMPANIES ARE FLOURISHING Unlisted funds remain the dominant source of capital in global real estate markets accounting for over half of available debt and equity raised. North America is responsible for over half of capital raised, reflecting the dominance of the multi-billion dollar gl

37、obal funds. European fund managers account for close to one third of total capital raised with a majority of fund strategies targeting opportunities within the EU. AVAILABLE CAPITAL BY FUND TYPE Unlisted funds 54% Listed companies 26% Institutions 15% Other 5% 2017 Unlisted funds 56% Listed companie

38、s 23% Institutions 16% Other 5% 2016 THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 12Listed companies now represent over a quarter of capital targeting the market in 2017. During the course of 2016 over $100bn of fresh equity was raised by listed companies, over 20% higher than in the previous year. The majority of equ

39、ity was raised in the Americas and Asia Pacific with EMEA remaining a developing market on the listed stage. Two key themes have been evident: first, private equity real estate funds have taken REITs private, and second, REITs have looked at M thus, a further reduction in available capital is likely

40、. Capital focused on the Americas continues to target the US and Canada core to value add spectrum. Against a backdrop of a normalisation in interest rates, this likely reflects greater focus on quality and secure income over added risk in the current cycle. Investors continually struggle to find th

41、e right asset allocation mix along the efficient frontier looking for the highest expected return at a given level of risk. Windows for successful higher returning, opportunistic strategies are mostly confined to the early part of a cycle when investors tend to be more cautious after addressing prob

42、lems at market nadirs. As such, and against a backdrop of a maturing global cycle, we expect to see the focus shift more towards core (and, in particular, build to core) strategies in coming years. FUND STYLE OPPORTUNISTIC STRATEGIES DOMINATE, BUT APPETITE FOR RISK IS ON THE DECLINE OPPORTUNISTIC ST

43、RATEGIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ASIA PACIFIC AND EMEA, WHILE VALUE ADD REMAINS THE PREFERRED STRATEGY IN THE AMERICAS. ASIA PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SEE A LARGE SHARE OF MULTI-COUNTRY FUNDS, ALTHOUGH CHINA SPECIFIC STRATEGIES ARE ATTRACTING A GROWING SHARE OF CAPITAL. THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 14AVAILABLE

44、 CAPITAL BY FUND STYLE AND TARGET REGION 2017 10% 15% 22% 53% 11% 16% 39% 34% 8% 27% 21% 44% 9% 23% 13% 55% THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY | 15OUTLOOK WITH THE GREAT WALL OF MONEY TARGETING REAL ESTATE AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS, INVESTORS NEED TO REMAIN FOCUSED BUT AGILE. KEY CHALLENGES FOR 2017 INCLUDE IDENTI

45、FYING ATTRACTIVELY PRICED STRATEGIES AND MOVING SWIFTLY TO SECURE EXPOSURE IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKET. In recent years, a breakdown in the risk/return relationship has continued to reward investors holding lower risk, higher quality assets. We expect this relationship to normalise and investor

46、s will start to see lower returns for lower risk strategies and vice versa. In particular, we expect that investors will be increasingly rewarded for investing outside of core markets and sectors particularly where there are structural change factors driving demand. We expect an ongoing focus on bui

47、ld-to-core strategies targeted at establishing modern assets that over the long term can outperform older, existing buildings in competing for tenants and achieving higher occupancies and potentially better rents. The interconnectedness of markets, either through infrastructure or clusters of knowle

48、dge, will be differentiating factors for investors as they look for longer term growth. Those investors with a flexible investment strategy will have a competitive edge in the current market. No doubt, an ongoing challenge for investors will be the sourcing of product. In recent years, a number of s

49、trategies have been held back by a lack of product. Investors, in some cases, have been reluctant to release stock as they are unable to reinvest at suitable returns. We expect this trend to continue although active traders are expected to release assets as they seek to book profits, especially where markets are in advanced stages of the cycle. With prime yields across many markets reaching new levels, we are not surprised to see a reduction in the level of fresh capital being raised. With uncertainties pervading