2017年8月德意志银行-中国-房地产行业-亚洲信贷：中国房地产最新动态-20170816-Asia Credit：Recent updates in China property-20170816-Deutsche Bank-佰策地产文库.pdf

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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China HY Corporate Credit Real Estate Date 16 August 2017 Asia Credit Recent updates in China property _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Karen Kwan, MBA Research Analyst (+65 ) 6423

2、5387 High-beta single-B or unrated China property companies bonds saw weakness in the past few weeks Some high-beta single-B and unrated names of the China property HY sector have been weak over the past few weeks up until last week. We have seen some mild increase in bond prices for this segment t

3、husfar this week. Markit iBoxx USD China Real Estate HY indexs ASW widened by 104bp since June 1 (up to yesterday). Like we mentioned in our Monday Tidbits: HY Calls 6M17 contracted sales was used for Greenland Group, instead of 7M17 contracted sales. Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank Figure 3: Ov

4、erall inventory trend in China Figure 4: Inventory trend in Tier-1, 2, and 3 cities in China J u n - 17 : 8.1 Av g: 13.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Ja n -10 Ju n -10 N o v -10 Ap r- 11 Se p -11 Fe b -12 Ju l-12 De c- 1 2 Ma y - Oct- 13 Ma r- 14 Aug- 14 Ja n -15 Ju n -15 N o v -15 Ap r- 16 Se p -16

5、Fe b -17 (m o n th ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Ja n -10 Ju n -10 N o v -10 Ap r- 11 Se p -11 Fe b -12 Ju l- 12 De c- 1 2 May - Oct- 13 Ma r- 14 Au g- 14 Ja n -15 Ju n -15 N o v -15 Ap r- 16 Se p -16 Fe b -17 (m o n th ) T ie r- 1 T ier- 2 T ie r- 3 Note: Inventory months is calculated by: Month-end inventory

6、GFA divided by average monthly sales GFA in the trailing 12 months Source: CREIS, , CRIC, Deutsche Bank Note: Inventory months is calculated by: Month-end inventory GFA divided by average monthly sales GFA in the trailing 12 months Source: CREIS, , CRIC, Deutsche Bank 16 August 2017 HY Corporate Cre

7、dit Real Estate Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Figure 5: July 2017 land market situation in different tiers of cities tracked by CREIS in China C i t i e s L a u n c h e d G F A ( m n s q m) T r a n s a c t e d G F A ( m n s q m) T o t a l l a n d p r e m i u m ( R M B b n ) A V ( R M B / s q m)

8、P r e m i u m o v e r o p e n i n g p r i c e s A m o u n t 3 2 55 1 1 , 1 8 2 16% M o M 63% 17% 18% 4% Do w n 6 p p t Y o Y 99% - 3 1 % 62% 15% Do w n 3 8 p p t A m o u n t 30 25 197 4 , 4 5 6 38% M o M - 1 6 % - 2 0 % 4% 43% U p 1 1 p p t Y o Y - 2 % - 1 2 % 48% 76% Do w n 1 2 p p t A m o u n t 54

9、 42 89 1 , 2 2 4 38% M o M - 1 6 % - 2 2 % - 3 7 % - 2 3 % Do w n 6 p p t Y o Y 23% 2% 82% 62% U p 1 3 p p t T i e r 3 T i e r 1 T i e r 2 Source: CREIS, , Deutsche Bank Figure 6: China overall commodity residential GFA sold in mn sq m (Monthly data) Figure 7: China overall commodity residential GFA

10、 sold YoY change (Monthly data) M o n t h l y ( m n s q m ) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 J a n - F e b 72. 8 61. 2 94. 9 93. 8 77. 1 100. 6 124. 4 Mar 85. 7 72. 7 94. 1 84. 5 83. 7 117. 4 130. 5 A p r 65. 0 56. 3 79. 3 66. 9 72. 0 105. 1 110. 4 May 72. 0 65. 5 83. 3 74. 3 86. 5 105. 6 114. 3 J

11、 u n 102. 6 97. 9 109. 2 105. 4 124. 5 142. 2 168. 3 J u l 67. 5 77. 3 86. 6 71. 0 86. 2 100. 6 100. 9 A u g 69. 8 79. 1 86. 6 75. 0 86. 7 103. 3 S e p 100. 6 99. 0 120. 3 105. 7 115. 1 155. 7 O c t 73. 7 92. 1 102. 9 99. 4 105. 2 132. 6 N o v 86. 7 114. 1 131. 5 114. 1 123. 0 132. 5 De c 173. 9 169

12、 7 168. 5 161. 7 163. 9 179. 8 M o n t h l y 2 0 1 1 Y o Y 2 0 1 2 Y o Y 2 0 1 3 Y o Y 2 0 1 4 Y o Y 2 0 1 5 Y o Y 2 0 1 6 Y o Y 2 0 1 7 Y o Y J a n - F e b 13% - 16% 55% - 1% - 18% 30% 24% Mar 15% - 15% 29% - 10% - 1% 40% 11% A p r - 10% - 13% 41% - 16% 8% 46% 5% May 18% - 9% 27% - 11% 16% 22% 8%

13、J u n 24% - 5% 12% - 4% 18% 14% 18% J u l 18% 14% 12% - 18% 21% 17% 0% A u g 14% 13% 10% - 13% 16% 19% S e p 7% - 2% 21% - 12% 9% 35% O c t - 12% 25% 12% - 3% 6% 26% N o v - 3% 32% 15% - 13% 8% 8% De c - 8% - 2% - 1% - 4% 1% 10% *Note Jan and Feb are reported together, instead of separately, to acco

14、unt for seasonality of Chinese New Year. Source: CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, Deutsche Bank *Note Jan and Feb are reported together, instead of separately, to account for seasonality of Chinese New Year. Source: CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, Deutsche Bank Figure 8: China residential n

15、ew start GFA R e s i de n t i a l n e w s t a r t GF A ( m n s q m ) Y o Y C h a n g e 2010 1 , 2 9 5 4 0 . 0 % 2011 1 , 4 6 0 1 2 . 8 % 2012 1 , 3 0 7 - 1 0 . 5 % 2013 1 , 4 5 8 1 1 . 6 % 2014 1 , 2 4 9 - 1 4 . 4 % 2015 1 , 0 6 7 - 1 4 . 6 % 2016 1 , 1 5 9 8 . 7 % 7 M 2 0 1 7 717 1 1 . 9 % Source:

16、CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, Deutsche Bank 16 August 2017 HY Corporate Credit Real Estate Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 5 Figure 9: RV chart for selected bonds in ask YTW Figure 10: RV chart for selected bonds in ask YTW AGIL E 2 2 AGIL E 2 0 C 1 8 C APG 1 8 C APG 2 0 C HINSC 2 0 C 1 8 C H

17、INSC 2 2 C 2 0 EV ERR E 2 5 C 2 1 EV ERR E 2 0 EV ERR E 2 2 C 2 0 EV ERR E 2 1 EV ERR E 2 3 C 2 0 FA NHA I 2 0C 18 FU T L AN 1 7 FU T L AN 2 0 FT L N HD 2 2 C 2 0 FT HDG R 2 2 C 2 0 FT HDG R 2 0 C 1 7 FT HDG R 1 8 FT HDG R 2 1 C 1 9 KW G PR O1 9 C 1 7 KW G PR O2 2 C 2 0 KW G PR O1 9 C 1 7 n e w PWR

18、L N G 1 8 PW R L NG 2 0 PWR L N G 2 1 C 1 9 L OGPH 2 0 C 1 9 L OGPH 2 2 C 2 0 L OGPH 2 3 C 2 0 KA IS AG2 0 KA IS AG2 1 KA IS AG2 2 C 2 0 KA IS AG2 4 C 2 1 G Z R FP R 2 2 C 2 0 SUN AC 2 0 SUN AC 2 2 C 2 0 SUN AC 1 9 C 1 7 SHUIO N 1 8 SHUIO N 2 1 SHUIO N 1 9 T PHL 2 0 C 1 9 T PHL 2 2 C 2 0 T PHL 2 0 C

19、 1 8 G U OPR O2 0 C 1 9 X INHU Z 2 0 C SCHC N 2 0 X IN 2 1 X IN 1 9 n e w HYDOO 1 8 R ONX IN 1 9 C 1 8 C EN C HI1 8 C 1 6 C EN C HI2 1 C 1 9 n e wC EN C HI2 1 C 1 9 YU Z HOU 2 2 C 2 0 YU Z HOU 1 9 C 1 7 n e w YUZ HO U 23 2 .0 3 .0 4 .0 5. 0 6 .0 7 .0 8 .0 9 .0 0 .0 0 .5 1 .0 1 .5 2 .0 2 .5 3 .0 3 .5

20、 4 .0 4 .5 5 .0 5 .5 6 .0 6 .5 7 .0 7 .5 8 .0 Y T W ( % ) Y e a rs - to - w ors t AGIL E C APG C IFIHG FAN HAI EV ERR E FT HDG R KW G PR O L O G PH G Z R FP R SUN AC SHUIO N T P HL YU Z HOU X IN KA IS AG HYDOO R O N X IN G U OPR O PWR L N G C HIN S C X IN HU Z C E N C HI L og . (AGIL E) L og . (C AP

21、G) L og . (C IFIHG) L og . (F AN HA I) L og . (E V ER R E) L og . (F T HDG R ) L og . (KW G PR O) L og . (L OGPH) L og . (G Z R FP R ) L og . (SU N AC ) L og . (SHUION) L og . (T PHL ) L og . (YU Z HOU) L og . (X IN) L og . (KAI SA G ) L og . (P W R L N G ) C OGARD 2 2 C 2 0 C OGARD 2 0 C 1 8 C OGAR

22、D 2 1 C 1 7 C OGARD 2 3 C 1 8 C O GA RD 2 3 C 2 0 C OGARD 2 6 P2 1 GRNC H 2 0 C 1 8 S H IM AO 2 2 C 2 0 S H IM AO 2 1 C 1 8 S H IM AO 2 2 C 1 9 DALWAN 1 8 DALWAN 2 4 GRNLHK 1 9 Y LLGS P 2 2 C 2 0 GRNLGR 1 8 GRNLGR 2 0 GRNLGR 1 9 new GRNLGR 2 4 2 . 0 3 . 0 4 . 0 5 . 0 6 . 0 7 . 0 8 . 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

23、7 8 9 10 Y T W ( % ) Y e a r s - to - w o r s t C OGA RD S H IM AO GRN C H GRN LH K GRN LGR DA LW AN ROA DK G Y LLGS P Lo g . ( C O GARD) Lo g . ( S H IM A O) Lo g . ( G R NC H ) Lo g . ( G R NLH K ) Lo g . ( G R NLG R ) Lo g . ( D ALW A N) Lo g . ( R O ADK G) Pricing data as of Aug 15, 2017 Source:

24、 Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Pricing data as of Aug 15, 2017 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Figure 11: Historical ask YTW of Evergrande 21, 23, 25 bonds Figure 12: Ask YTW of Kaisa 20, 21, 22, 24 bonds Figure 13: Ask YTW of newly issued Sunac bonds 6 . 0 6 . 5 7 . 0 7 . 5 8 .

25、0 8 . 5 9 . 0 9 . 5 1 0 . 0 E V E RRE 6 .2 5 2 1 E V E RR E 7 .5 2 3 E V E RR E 8 .7 5 2 5 A sk Y T W ( %) 6 . 5 7 . 0 7 . 5 8 . 0 8 . 5 9 . 0 9 . 5 KAI SA G 9 .3 7 5 2 4 KAI SA G 7 .2 5 2 0 KAI SA G 7 .8 7 5 2 1 KAI SA G 8 .5 2 2 A sk Y T W ( %) 7 . 0 7 . 2 7 . 4 7 . 6 7 . 8 8 . 0 8 . 2 8 / 3 / 2 0

26、 1 7 8 / 9 / 2 0 1 7 8 / 1 5 / 2 0 1 7 SU N A C 6 .8 7 2 0 SU N A C 7 .9 5 2 2 A sk Y T W ( %) Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P The author of this report wishes to acknowledge the contribution made

27、by Jiawei Xu, an employee of CRISIL, a third-party provider to Deutsche Bank of offshore research support services. 16 August 2017 HY Corporate Credit Real Estate Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist Institu

28、tion Disclosure China Evergrande NA Kaisa KAISAG 7.25% notes 2020 1,7 KAISAG 7.875% notes 2021 1,7 KAISAG 8.5% notes 2022 1,7 KAISAG 9.375% notes 2024 1,7 Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Blo

29、omberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or vi

30、sit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http:/ Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under the “Disclosures Lookup“ and “Legal“ tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclos

31、ures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States. See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 1. Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has m

32、anaged or co-managed a public or private offering for this company, for which it received fees. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. Important Disclosures Requ

33、ired by Non-U.S. Regulators Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes. 1. Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering for this company, for which it received

34、 fees. 7. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on a security mentioned in this report, please see

35、the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http:/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers

36、 In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Karen Kwan 16 August 2017 HY Corporate Credit Real Estate Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 7 Deutsche Bank debt rating key Bond rating dispersion a

37、nd banking relationships CreditBuy (“C-B”): The total return of the Reference Credit Instrument (bond or CDS) is expected to outperform the credit spread of bonds / CDS of other issuers operating in similar sectors or rating categories over the next six months. CreditHold (“C-H”): The credit spread

38、of the Reference Credit Instrument (bond or CDS) is expected to perform in line with the credit spread of bonds / CDS of other issuers operating in similar sectors or rating categories over the next six months. CreditSell (“C-S”): The credit spread of the Reference Credit Instrument (bond or CDS) is

39、 expected to underperform the credit spread of bonds / CDS of other issuers operating in similar sectors or rating categories over the next six months. CreditNoRec (“C-NR”): We have not assigned a recommendation to this issuer. Any references to valuation are based on an issuers credit rating. Refer

40、ence Credit Instrument (“RCI”): The Reference Credit Instrument for each issuer is selected by the analyst as the most appropriate valuation benchmark (whether bonds or Credit Default Swaps) and is detailed in this report. Recommendations on other credit instruments of an issuer may differ from the

41、recommendation on the Reference Credit Instrument based on an assessment of value relative to the Reference Credit Instrument which might take into account other factors such as differing covenant language, coupon steps, liquidity and maturity. The Reference Credit Instrument is subject to change, a

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