2017年7月J.P.摩根-JPMORGAN-全球股市研究-全球REIT雷达-包括世界上每家大型上市房地产公司的估计-2017.7-Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world-佰策地产文库.pdf

《2017年7月J.P.摩根-JPMORGAN-全球股市研究-全球REIT雷达-包括世界上每家大型上市房地产公司的估计-2017.7-Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world-佰策地产文库.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2017年7月J.P.摩根-JPMORGAN-全球股市研究-全球REIT雷达-包括世界上每家大型上市房地产公司的估计-2017.7-Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world-佰策地产文库.pdf（34页珍藏版）》请在佰策地产文库上搜索。

1、Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world Global Real Estate Ben Brayshaw AC (61-2) 9003-8659 Bloomberg JPMA BRAYSHAW J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited Richard Jones, CFA (61-3) 9633-4038 J.P. Morgan S

2、ecurities Australia Limited Anthony Paolone, CFA (1-212) 622-6682 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Michael W. Mueller, CFA (1-212) 622-6689 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Tim Leckie, CFA (44-20) 7134-4477 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Neil Green, CFA (44-20) 7134-4478 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Cusson Leung,

3、 CFA (852) 2800-8526 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited Dan Lu, CFA (81-3) 6736-8628 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Adrian E Huerta * (52-81) 8152-8720 J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan

4、 Grupo Financiero * Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/FINRA rules. See page 32 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investo

5、rs should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. In this inaugural report, our real estate analysts covering 180 property companies wi

6、th market capitalization of US$1.1trn, have come together to take a detailed look at listed real estate valuations worldwide. In our analysis, which spans 10 jurisdictions, we look at pricingacross the main geographies and property sectors, and further drill down to focus on key valuation metrics fo

7、r the 80 largest and most relevant REITs globally. Key points: Equity performance shows REITs lagging Developers. Over the last year, REITs delivered a total return of -2.8% (local ccy terms). The best performer was Hong Kong (14.4%), followed by Brazil (10.1%), and the worst performer was Australia

8、 (-12%), followed by Japan at (-11.2%). Developers delivered 14.4%, driven by Asian markets and Australia. REITs trade at 4% DPS yield, and cash flow supports 5% growth. Our global database of 180 property companies, shows REITs are priced at 21x AFFO, with Japan trading at the highest multiple, at

9、28x, and Australia the lowest, at 18x. The average DPS yield is 4.1%, based on a payout ratio of 88%. We estimate annual DPS growth will average 5% for the next 3 years. REITs trading marginally below NAV, but wide variation. REITs are now priced 4% below our NAV estimates (market value of tangible

10、and intangible assets, less liabilities), however there is wide variation. Australia and the UK are trading 16-17% below NAV, the US and Europe are trading at around NAV, and Japan is at a 10% premium. Global peer group comparisons highlight relative value. We have selected the 80 largest or most re

11、levant REITs and put these into peer group baskets. Consequently, we also drill down to compare relative value in each market across different property sectors, which makes for some interesting cross border comparisons. Large valuation gap exists across different property sectors. On a global basis,

12、 REIT pricing is book-ended by Industrial and Multi- family exposure trading at around our Price Targets, at implied cap rates of 4.5-5% versus Retail exposure (Malls, Strip Centers and Large Format), trading 15% below our Price Targets, at cap rates of 6%. Completed 21 Jul 2017 01:57 PM AEST Dissem

13、inated 21 Jul 2017 04:09 PM AEST 2 Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Ben Brayshaw (61-2) 9003-8659 Table of Contents Performance and valuation by exchange3 REITs and Developer valuations4 Performance and valuation by asset class.5 Retail malls.6 Strip Centres and Large Format Retail8 Office10 Div

14、ersified12 Industrial14 Self Storage16 Multi-family.18 Healthcare19 Global REIT Valuation Sheet.20 Valuation historyby jurisdiction23 Definitions30 Analyst contacts31 3 Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Ben Brayshaw (61-2) 9003-8659 Performance and valuation by exchange Performance On a rolling 1

15、2 month basis, REITs across 10 jurisdictions delivered a total return of -2.8% (Table 1) The best performer was Hong Kongwith 14.4%, followed by Braziland Singaporewith 10% In positive territory is United Kingdomand Europe, returning 4-7% Australiaand UAEwere the worst performers, returning -12% to

16、-13%, and Japanwas -11% Figure 1: REITs total return for prior year Source: EPRA/NAREIT index from Bloomberg. Returns in local currency. Valuation REITs in our coveragenow trade 8% below our Price Targets The most under-valued markets are Australia, Europe andUK, trading 11-13% below Price Targets A

17、lso trading below our Price Targets is the United Statesand Brazil, at 6-8% discounts Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are trading at around our Price Targets Figure 2: REITs premium to Price Target Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Table 1: REITs or Developers under J.P. Morgan coverage Equity market ca

18、p. (US$m) No. in EPRA index One month EPRA return 12 month EPRA return JPM cove- rage (US$m) JPM cove -rage (no.) Prem. to Price Target Prem. to NAV1 DPS yield 2 DPS 3-year CAGR Payout ratio (AFFO) AFFO multi- ple REITs U.S. 809,827 134 0.2% (4.2%) 527,117 58 (7%) (2%) 3.9% 4.8% 86% 21.8 Europe 211,

19、982 65 (1.8%) 4.4% 127,373 21 (12%) 0% 4.4% 5.7% 87% 19.8 Australia 86,844 13 (6.8%) (12.0%) 94,850 23 (13%) (17%) 5.2% 3.5% 94% 18.2 U.K. 68,349 28 0.2% 7.4% 63,705 21 (11%) (16%) 3.5% 4.8% 80% 22.9 Japan 86,089 32 (6.0%) (11.2%) 22,645 5 (3%) 10% 3.5% 3.0% 99% 28.0 Singapore 30,361 9 1.0% 10.6% 32

20、,412 11 1% (2%) 5.2% 1.8% 117% 22.5 Hong Kong 24,357 3 3.0% 14.4% 24,346 3 2% (8%) 3.9% 6.8% 76% 19.4 Brazil 18,984 17 13.1% 10.1% 9,833 4 (6%) (13%) 0.9% 18.6% 22% 23.7 Mexico 14,317 8 3.4% 1.7% 13,676 4 1% 0% 5.6% 7.3% 89% 15.9 UAE 9,324 2 (0.3%) (13.1%) 8,964 1 (12%) (12%) 4.6% 18.8% 61% 13.4 Tot

21、al/ave. 1,360,4 33 311 (0.7%) (2.8%) 924,922 151 (8.1%) (4.5%) 4.1% 5.0% 88% 21.2 Developers Hong Kong 200,798 11 0.4% 17.6% 78,673 6 3% (38%) 3.5% 3.1% 68% 19.2 Japan 82,582 9 (4.8%) 9.8% 68,160 5 (18%) (25%) 1.2% 6.5% 15% 12.4 Latin Am. 35,649 25 7.4% 8.5% 2,721 6 (10%) (13%) 0.5% 31.7% 22% 49.6 S

22、ingapore 23,222 3 1.3% 28.4% 31,781 8 (5%) (19%) 3.4% (3.1%) 50% 14.7 UAE 9,324 3 (0.3%) (13.1%) 21,102 2 (11%) (15%) 2.8% 8.3% 40% 14.0 Australia3 8,058 1 5.1% 44.7% 8,058 1 1% 8% 3.6% 8.1% 42% 11.5 Total/ave. 359,632 52 (0.1%) 14.4% 210,495 28 (6.7%) (26.7%) 2.6% 4.3% 42% 15.9 Source: Bloomberg fo

23、r EPRA total returns. J.P. Morgan estimates. All data as at 20-July-17. 1. NAV estimates exclude capitalized Gand (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s)

24、in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention. Important Disclosures Company-Specific Disc

25、losures: Important disclosures, including price charts andcredit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgancovered companies by visitinghttps:/ calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing with your request. J.P. Morgans Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research te

26、ams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477- 0406 or e-mail . Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight Over the next si

27、x to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Neutral Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts

28、 (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Underweight Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable,

29、the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Au

30、stralia) and U.K. small-and mid-cap equity research, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying anal

31、ysts coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgans research website, . Coverage Universe: Brayshaw, Benjamin J: Astro Japan Property Group (AJA.AX), BWP Trust (BWP.AX), Carindale Property Trust (CDP.AX), Charter Hall Group (CHC.AX), Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (CLW.AX), Cromwell Property Group (CMW

32、.AX), DEXUS Property Group (DXS.AX), GPT Group (GPT.AX), Investa Office Fund (IOF.AX), National Storage REIT (NSR) (NSR.AX), SCA Property Group (SCP.AX) J.P. Morgan EquityResearch Ratings Distribution, as of July 03, 2017 Overweight (buy) Neutral (hold) Underweight (sell) J.P. Morgan Global Equity R

33、esearch Coverage 44% 45% 11% IB clients* 52% 50% 31% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 44% 50% 6% IB clients* 68% 65% 46% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category;

34、 our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies o

35、r price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http:/, contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email . Equity Analysts Compensation:The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive co

36、mpensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues. Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates o

37、f JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons ofJPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Other

38、 Disclosures 33 Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Ben Brayshaw (61-2) 9003-8659 J.P. Morgan (“JPM“) is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS“) and its affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a marketing name for the U.K. investment banking businesses and EMEA cash equi

39、ties and equity research businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co.and its subsidiaries. All research reports made available to clients are simultaneously available on our client website, J.P. Morgan Markets. Not all research content is redistributed, e-mailed or made available to third-party aggregators. F

40、or all research reports available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative. Options related research:If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure document

41、s. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporations Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCCs website at http:/ Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a m

42、ember of FDIC. U.K.: JPMorgan Chase N.A., London Branch, is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential

43、 Regulation Authority are available from J.P. Morgan on request. J.P. Morgan Securities plc (JPMS plc) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registere

44、d in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Board. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacif

45、ic) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong and/or J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited (CE number AAB027) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: This material is issued

46、and distributed in Korea by or through J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch, which is a member of the Korea Exchange(KRX) and is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS). Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (JPMAL) (ABN

47、52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (JPMSAL) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated by ASIC and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-X. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited (Corporate Ident