【戴德梁行】2024年中国房地产展望报告.pdf

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1、年月介绍介绍42024010%4%8%12%16%20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%030,00060,00090,000120,000150,000房地产开发投资（亿元）房地产开发投资同比增幅5202402051015202530352023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F新能源储能 新增装机量（GW）7.007.508.008.509.009.5010.0010.50绿色甲级写字楼非绿色甲级写字楼620240340.74%50.00%9.26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%A.是B.否C.不知道百万平方

2、米67%53%35%30%22%11%9%8%0%20%40%60%80%0123456深圳广州成都武汉上海台北香港北京2024202520262027未来供应占存量比例7202404-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%服务零售餐饮收入商品零售金银珠宝类烟酒类服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类体育、娱乐用品类中西药品类石油及制品类化妆品类汽车类粮油、食品类通讯器材类日用品类家具类饮料类家用电器和音像器材类文化办公用品类建筑及装潢材料类8202405NCBD0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0102030405020182019202020212022工业增加值（万亿元）比上年增长(%)0%10%20%3

3、0%40%50%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000201620172018201920202021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F预制菜市场规模（亿元）比上年增长(%)920240601,0002,0003,0004,0005,000201720182019202020212022Q1-Q32023上海北京深圳广州其他城市香港台北16%29%25%23%28%24%13%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500201720182019202020212022Q1-Q3 2023内资境外人民币 亿元人民币 亿元20241003060

4、902020 2021 2022 2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F040801201602020202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）13,638,810 14,797,0052,944,706空置率18.7%10.3%17.4%租金（元/平方米/月）297.92,250.060.3资本化率5.0%5.6%4.9%113.5%4.5%5.5%6.5%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023020406080202020212022 2023F 2024F 2025F202412

5、万平方米010020030020202021202220232024F2025F2026F0 50 100 150 200 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）16,423,19822,974,92510,476,000空置率21.8%9.6%15.1%租金（元/平方米/月）239.51,873.349.3资本化率核心4.5%新兴4.8%核心4.5%新兴4.8%4.8%20241303060901202020202120222023F2024F3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%2015 2016 2017 20

6、18 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）8,089,175 6,599,4121,702,485空置率26.06%8.95%1.33%租金（元/平方米/月）186.45802.9551.16资本化率4.8%4.8%5.0%202414030609020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F06012018020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F2024150306090202120222023F2024F2025F2026F3%4%4%5%5%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20

7、21 2022 Q32023甲级写字楼零售物业写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）6,494,9445,660,0863,524,362空置率18.68%7.23%2.47%租金（元/平方米/月）149.71710.2842.49资本化率4.5%4.4%5.0%202416040801202020 2021 2022 2023 2024F2025F2026F2027F02040608020202021202220232024F2025F2026F2024173.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q32023万平方米0501001

8、502002020202120222023F2024F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）3,116,0767,987,9235,790,805空置率22.36%6.5%5.3%租金（元/平方米/月）103.42617.7327.33资本化率5%-6%4%-5%5%-7%202418，01020304020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F02040608020202021202220232024F 2025F 2026F20241903060901201502020202120222023 2024F 2025F 2026F写字楼零售物业物流高标库存量（平方米）3,007

9、,267 4,053,3994,583,832 空置率35.9%13.8%21.9%租金（元/平方米/月）94.8463.925.8资本化率6.0%5.2%5.8%2024200102030402020202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F040801202020202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F20242103060901202020202120222023F2024F写字楼*零售物业存量(平方呎)68,312,500N/A35,250,900空置率18.0%8.2%7.5%租金(港币/平方呎/月)48.2616.014.8资本化率2.5%

10、*2.8%3.2%20242205001,0001,5002,000201920202021202220231H 2024F铜锣湾尖沙咀中环旺角0.12.91.81.24.00.80.2012345202120222023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F2024232.0%2.4%2.8%3.2%2019202020212022Q3 2023甲级写字楼(整体)甲级写字楼(中环)零售预测012345202120222023F2024F2025F写字楼零售物业物流高标库存量（坪）788,330N/A1,007,580空置率6.1%7.2%N/A租金（元/坪/月)2,71011,200700-80020242401234520202021202220232024F2025F0%5%10%15%20%25%4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23中山南京西門忠孝202425051015202021202220232024F05010015020020192020202120222023272024贾萱贾萱华西区研究部主管魏东魏东北区研究部主管邓淑贤邓淑贤香港研究部主管李易璇李易璇台湾研究部助理董事Shaun Brodie大中华区研究内容主管张晓端张晓端华南及华中区研究部主管陈妍斐陈妍斐亚太区资本市场研究主管