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2017年7月J.P.摩根-JPMORGAN-全球股市研究-全球REIT雷达-包括世界上每家大型上市房地产公司的估计-2017.7-Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world-佰策地产文库.pdf

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2017年7月J.P.摩根-JPMORGAN-全球股市研究-全球REIT雷达-包括世界上每家大型上市房地产公司的估计-2017.7-Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world-佰策地产文库.pdf

Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Global REIT Radar Includes estimates for every large-scale listed property company in the world Global Real Estate Ben Brayshaw AC 61-2 9003-8659 Bloomberg JPMA BRAYSHAW J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited Richard Jones, CFA 61-3 9633-4038 J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited Anthony Paolone, CFA 1-212 622-6682 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Michael W. Mueller, CFA 1-212 622-6689 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Tim Leckie, CFA 44-20 7134-4477 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Neil Green, CFA 44-20 7134-4478 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Cusson Leung, CFA 852 2800-8526 J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Pacific Limited Brandon Lee 65 6882-7073 J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited Dan Lu, CFA 81-3 6736-8628 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Adrian E Huerta * 52-81 8152-8720 J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero * Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/FINRA rules. See page 32 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. In this inaugural report, our real estate analysts covering 180 property companies with market capitalization of US1.1trn, have come together to take a detailed look at listed real estate valuations worldwide. In our analysis, which spans 10 jurisdictions, we look at pricingacross the main geographies and property sectors, and further drill down to focus on key valuation metrics for the 80 largest and most relevant REITs globally. Key points  Equity perance shows REITs lagging Developers. Over the last year, REITs delivered a total return of -2.8 local ccy terms. The best perer was Hong Kong 14.4, followed by Brazil 10.1, and the worst perer was Australia -12, followed by Japan at -11.2. Developers delivered 14.4, driven by Asian markets and Australia.  REITs trade at 4 DPS yield, and cash flow supports 5 growth. Our global database of 180 property companies, shows REITs are priced at 21x AFFO, with Japan trading at the highest multiple, at 28x, and Australia the lowest, at 18x. The average DPS yield is 4.1, based on a payout ratio of 88. We estimate annual DPS growth will average 5 for the next 3 years.  REITs trading marginally below NAV, but wide variation. REITs are now priced 4 below our NAV estimates market value of tangible and intangible assets, less liabilities, however there is wide variation. Australia and the UK are trading 16-17 below NAV, the US and Europe are trading at around NAV, and Japan is at a 10 premium.  Global peer group comparisons highlight relative value. We have selected the 80 largest or most relevant REITs and put these into peer group baskets. Consequently, we also drill down to compare relative value in each market across different property sectors, which makes for some interesting cross border comparisons.  Large valuation gap exists across different property sectors. On a global basis, REIT pricing is ‘book-ended’ by Industrial and Multi- family exposure – trading at around our Price Targets, at implied cap rates of 4.5-5 –versus Retail exposure Malls, Strip Centers and Large at, trading 15 below our Price Targets, at cap rates of 6. Completed 21 Jul 2017 0157 PM AEST Disseminated 21 Jul 2017 0409 PM AEST 2 Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Ben Brayshaw 61-2 9003-8659 Table of Contents Perance and valuation by exchange3 REITs and Developer valuations4 Perance and valuation by asset class.5 Retail malls.6 Strip Centres and Large at Retail8 Office10 Diversified12 Industrial14 Self Storage16 Multi-family.18 Healthcare19 Global REIT Valuation Sheet.20 Valuation historyby jurisdiction23 Definitions30 Analyst contacts31 3 Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Ben Brayshaw 61-2 9003-8659 Perance and valuation by exchange Perance  On a rolling 12 month basis, REITs across 10 jurisdictions delivered a total return of -2.8 Table 1  The best perer was Hong Kongwith 14.4, followed by Braziland Singaporewith 10  In positive territory is United Kingdomand Europe, returning 4-7  Australiaand UAEwere the worst perers, returning -12 to -13, and Japanwas -11 Figure 1 REITs total return for prior year Source EPRA/NAREIT index from Bloomberg. Returns in local currency. Valuation  REITs in our coveragenow trade 8 below our Price Targets  The most under-valued markets are Australia, Europe andUK, trading 11-13 below Price Targets  Also trading below our Price Targets is the United Statesand Brazil, at 6-8 discounts  Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are trading at around our Price Targets Figure 2 REITs premium to Price Target Source J.P. Morgan estimates. Table 1 REITs or Developers under J.P. Morgan coverage Equity market cap. USm No. in EPRA index One month EPRA return 12 month EPRA return JPM cove- rage USm JPM cove -rage no. Prem. to Price Target Prem. to NAV1 DPS yield 2 DPS 3-year CAGR Payout ratio AFFO AFFO multi- ple REITs U.S. 809,827 134 0.2 4.2 527,117 58 7 2 3.9 4.8 86 21.8 Europe 211,982 65 1.8 4.4 127,373 21 12 0 4.4 5.7 87 19.8 Australia 86,844 13 6.8 12.0 94,850 23 13 17 5.2 3.5 94 18.2 U.K. 68,349 28 0.2 7.4 63,705 21 11 16 3.5 4.8 80 22.9 Japan 86,089 32 6.0 11.2 22,645 5 3 10 3.5 3.0 99 28.0 Singapore 30,361 9 1.0 10.6 32,412 11 1 2 5.2 1.8 117 22.5 Hong Kong 24,357 3 3.0 14.4 24,346 3 2 8 3.9 6.8 76 19.4 Brazil 18,984 17 13.1 10.1 9,833 4 6 13 0.9 18.6 22 23.7 Mexico 14,317 8 3.4 1.7 13,676 4 1 0 5.6 7.3 89 15.9 UAE 9,324 2 0.3 13.1 8,964 1 12 12 4.6 18.8 61 13.4 Total/ave. 1,360,4 33 311 0.7 2.8 924,922 151 8.1 4.5 4.1 5.0 88 21.2 Developers Hong Kong 200,798 11 0.4 17.6 78,673 6 3 38 3.5 3.1 68 19.2 Japan 82,582 9 4.8 9.8 68,160 5 18 25 1.2 6.5 15 12.4 Latin Am. 35,649 25 7.4 8.5 2,721 6 10 13 0.5 31.7 22 49.6 Singapore 23,222 3 1.3 28.4 31,781 8 5 19 3.4 3.1 50 14.7 UAE 9,324 3 0.3 13.1 21,102 2 11 15 2.8 8.3 40 14.0 Australia3 8,058 1 5.1 44.7 8,058 1 1 8 3.6 8.1 42 11.5 Total/ave. 359,632 52 0.1 14.4 210,495 28 6.7 26.7 2.6 4.3 42 15.9 Source Bloomberg for EPRA total returns. J.P. Morgan estimates. All data as at 20-July-17. 1. NAV estimates exclude capitalized Gand 2 no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analysts in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention. Important Disclosures Company-Specific Disclosures Important disclosures, including price charts andcredit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visitinghttps// calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing with your request. J.P. Morgan’s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477- 0406 or e-mail . Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analysts Coverage Universe J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outper the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s or the analyst’s team’s coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will per in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s or the analyst’s team’s coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underper the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s or the analyst’s team’s coverage universe.] Not Rated NR J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia ex-Australia and U.K. small-and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, . Coverage Universe Brayshaw, Benjamin J Astro Japan Property Group AJA.AX, BWP Trust BWP.AX, Carindale Property Trust CDP.AX, Charter Hall Group CHC.AX, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT CLW.AX, Cromwell Property Group CMW.AX, DEXUS Property Group DXS.AX, GPT Group GPT.AX, Investa Office Fund IOF.AX, National Storage REIT NSR NSR.AX, SCA Property Group SCP.AX J.P. Morgan EquityResearch Ratings Distribution, as of July 03, 2017 Overweight buy Neutral hold Underweight sell J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 44 45 11 IB clients* 52 50 31 JPMS Equity Research Coverage 44 50 6 IB clients* 68 65 46 *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Equity Valuation and Risks For valuation ology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http//, contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email . Equity Analysts CompensationThe equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues. Registration of non-US Analysts Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons ofJPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Other Disclosures 33 Global Equity Research 21 July 2017 Ben Brayshaw 61-2 9003-8659 J.P. Morgan “JPM“ is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC “JPMS“ and its affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a marketing name for the U.K. investment banking businesses and EMEA cash equities and equity research businesses of JPMorgan Chase Co.and its subsidiaries. All research reports made available to clients are simultaneously available on our client website, J.P. Morgan Markets. Not all research content is redistributed, e-mailed or made available to third-party aggregators. For all research reports available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative. Options related researchIf the ination contained herein regards options related research, such ination is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporations Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCCs website at http// Legal Entities Disclosures U.S. JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC. U.K. JPMorgan Chase N.A., London Branch, is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from J.P. Morgan on request. J.P. Morgan Securities plc JPMS plc is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered in England Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. South Africa J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Board. Hong Kong J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Pacific Limited CE number AAJ321 is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong and/or J.P. Morgan Broking Hong Kong Limited CE number AAB027 is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea This material is issued and distributed in Korea by or through J.P. Morgan Securities Far East Limited, Seoul Branch, which is a member of the Korea ExchangeKRX and is regulated by the Financial Services Commission FSC and the Financial Supervisory Service FSS. Australia J.P. Morgan Australia Limited JPMAL ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No 238188 is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited JPMSAL ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No 238066 is regulated by ASIC and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-X. Taiwan J.P.Morgan Securities Taiwan Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange company-type and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India J.P. Morgan India Private Limited Corporate Ident

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